PONE-D-23-08499Past, present and future in the geographical distribution of Mexican tepezmaite cycads: genus CeratozamiaPLOS ONE

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Reviewer #1: Yes

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Reviewer #1: Yes

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Reviewer #1: Yes

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Reviewer #1: General comments.

Interesting paper about three rare, endemic, of restricted distribution, (and beautiful ! ) Ceratozamia species.

Some clarifications and improvements are needed. See my specific comments.

Having all this knowledge about these three species, and making a good point about the expected impacts of climatic change, I believe that the authors are in the position to suggest some specific actions for improving its conservation in the Era of climatic change. They mention that superficially on Conclusion, but I believe it would be worth to develop that on Discussion Section

Specific comments

Abstract.

Line 39. “the tropical climate species will apparently be favored”. Say which specie: “the tropical climate species (C. ???) will apparently be favored.

Introduction

L. 52. “after Australia with 80% endemic species of the country”. It is not clear. Is it: “after Australia with 80% endemic species of the world? Or do you mean Mexico has as endemic 80 % of the Cycads that distribute in Mexico? Please clarify.

68-69. The three species receive the same common/local name of ““Tepezmaite”? Reword to clarify that.

73. “C. tenuis has not been evaluated by Mexican laws”. I do not believe that “laws” are able to evaluate. The species could be or not protected by the Mexican laws. Perhaps to say “C. tenuis has not been evaluated by Mexican federal agency for the environment protection” or so.

79-80: Better (I guess what you mean): “The three species grow on humid mountain pine-oak forest”. Or do you mean mountain cloud forest? Because the cloud forest is among the most endangered biome in Mexico by climatic change, combined by its reduced distribution. See Table 4 on Rehfeldt et al 2012. Ecological Applications, 22(1), pp. 119–141.

103. “200 ma” ¿ what do you mean with “ma” ? millions of years? Would it be “Myr”? Perhaps better do not abbreviate to prevent confusion.

108. (Same correction for line 121 and so for) In English “nombres propios” are capitalized. It should be “Tepezmaite’s”, like we use “Douglas-fir” and not “douglas-fir”.

Methods

158. Comma needed on: “C. brevifrons remained, 16 of C. morettii and..”

173-176. And perhaps because so far RCP 8.5 appears to be the most likely scenario, given the steady trend so far of green-house effect gas emissions? See for example: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/Documents/PipelinePaper.2023.05.19.pdf

Results

212. Better: “exceptionally small distribution área”

215-218. I believe it is better if you say what are the relevant variables, by its name, and not by its code name. As you did on 290-297.

232. A “a slight decrease” … regarding present distribution?

Figure 4,a lthoug key for the argument of the manuscript, it is of poor resolution and difficult to appreciate the details. Each panel is very small. Inbelieve you can zoom a bit, eliminating not relevant areas (with no specie distribution) both at north and at south, to enhance the species distribution area on each panel.

Table 5 and references to that on the main text. I do not see the point to estimate “past to future”. What is the benefit of that? Is meaningless. The relevant is present to future, and it is interesting past to present. That is it.

Discussion

345-346. say some examples of what you rfer to as “notable orographic

barriers” A specific river or mountain or volcano?

366-369. In addition to your reference [55], see Rehfeldt et al 2012 Ecol. Appl.

372-374. Perhaps say that such a catastrophic predicted reduction of P. oocarpa is specifically for Veracruz, because P. oocarpa, exactly because it is on of the species that grows in the low altitudinal limit of the pine-oak forest, is apt to site dryer than for most of the pines. That make that it is a pine that loss less area, compared with other Mexican pines. See for example Gómez-Pineda et al 2020, Ecological Applications, 30(2), e02041. https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/eap.2041

390. what do you mean with “apparent” droughts? Or do you mean sporadic droughts?

Conclusions

408. I do not believe that you focused on your research on “current anthropogenic pressures” enough to put that on Conclusions. To mention that on Introduction or so it is OK, but your modeling was done solely with climatic variables, was it not?

424. “.. multiple perspectives and approaches are necessary to be

integrated” OK, like what approaches are needed? Examples? Suggestions? Do that on Discussion.

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Reviewer #1: No

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Past, present and future in the geographical distribution of Mexican Tepezmaite cycads: genus Ceratozamia

PONE-D-23-08499R1

Dear Dr. César I. Carvajal-Hernández,

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