Peer Review History
| Original SubmissionOctober 29, 2021 |
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PONE-D-21-34420Lexical Phylogenetics of the Tupí-Guaraní Family: Language, Archaeology, and the Problem of ChronologyPLOS ONE Dear Dr. Ferraz Gerardi, Thank you for submitting your manuscript to PLOS ONE. After careful consideration, we feel that it has merit but does not fully meet PLOS ONE’s publication criteria as it currently stands. Therefore, we invite you to submit a revised version of the manuscript that addresses the points raised during the review process. Please submit your revised manuscript by Mar 05 2022 11:59PM. If you will need more time than this to complete your revisions, please reply to this message or contact the journal office at plosone@plos.org. When you're ready to submit your revision, log on to https://www.editorialmanager.com/pone/ and select the 'Submissions Needing Revision' folder to locate your manuscript file. Please include the following items when submitting your revised manuscript:
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[Unpublished]”) as detailed online in our guide for authors http://journals.plos.org/plosone/s/submission-guidelines#loc-reference-style [Note: HTML markup is below. Please do not edit.] Reviewers' comments: Reviewer's Responses to Questions Comments to the Author 1. Is the manuscript technically sound, and do the data support the conclusions? The manuscript must describe a technically sound piece of scientific research with data that supports the conclusions. Experiments must have been conducted rigorously, with appropriate controls, replication, and sample sizes. The conclusions must be drawn appropriately based on the data presented. Reviewer #1: No Reviewer #2: Yes Reviewer #3: Partly ********** 2. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously? Reviewer #1: No Reviewer #2: Yes Reviewer #3: Yes ********** 3. Have the authors made all data underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available? The PLOS Data policy requires authors to make all data underlying the findings described in their manuscript fully available without restriction, with rare exception (please refer to the Data Availability Statement in the manuscript PDF file). The data should be provided as part of the manuscript or its supporting information, or deposited to a public repository. For example, in addition to summary statistics, the data points behind means, medians and variance measures should be available. If there are restrictions on publicly sharing data—e.g. participant privacy or use of data from a third party—those must be specified. Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #2: Yes Reviewer #3: Yes ********** 4. Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English? PLOS ONE does not copyedit accepted manuscripts, so the language in submitted articles must be clear, correct, and unambiguous. Any typographical or grammatical errors should be corrected at revision, so please note any specific errors here. Reviewer #1: No Reviewer #2: Yes Reviewer #3: Yes ********** 5. Review Comments to the Author Please use the space provided to explain your answers to the questions above. You may also include additional comments for the author, including concerns about dual publication, research ethics, or publication ethics. (Please upload your review as an attachment if it exceeds 20,000 characters) Reviewer #1: In this paper, the authors apply Bayesian phylogenetic methods to the Tupí-Guaraní language family in an attempt to illuminate the origin and expansion of this family. The authors conduct a range of analyses (phylogenetic network, phylogenetic dating, phylogeographic analysis) and conclude that the origin of this family was around 2000 years ago. The authors are to be commended for making all their data and analyses available. This has not, unfortunately, been the case for previous work on Tupí-Guaraní, and I admire the authors' good practice here. In general, I like the paper, and think it has a lot of potential, but as it currently stands it has some serious analytical flaws and the manuscript is poorly structured. These shortcomings make it unclear what analyses were done and why, and what the results actually mean. In particular I have some serious concerns about the dating of the family. These flaws preclude its publication in its current state and I therefore recommend *major revisions*. My recommendations and suggestions for revision are listed below. Major issues: 1. The phylogenetic analysis is problematic. 1a. how was the ascertainment correction implemented? The XML file in the single partition analysis specifies that the first character in the alignment is the ascertainment correction, and this character is all zero (correct). However, there are 183 characters in the site alignment that are also empty. This will severely affect the likelihood calculation and is likely to over-inflate the tree height (this is why the Bouckaert et al. Indo-European paper had to issue a correction https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1219669). 1b. Please check the calibrations. The paper lists 11 historical calibrations and says that Tupinambá has a uniform calibration. The XML lists 4 calibrations and specifies a normal distribution. 1c. There is no detail on what phylogeographic model was used, how it was analysed, and what the results were (beyond a nice visualisation). More detail please. 2. I am unconvinced by the dating of TG in these analysis. First, there are very few historical calibrations and all of them are very shallow calibrations on the order of a few hundred years. So, the young age of TG here (compared to say, glottochronological estimates of ~3000 years) could just be an artefact of the lack of timing information in the mid parts of the tree. Second, there is no attempt to assess the robustness of this timing to different models. Root ages can vary massively between models. Third, there is no discussion of the uncertainty in these estimates. They are solely reported as "about". The median and 95% HPD interval (or standard deviation or range) need to be reported. Looking at the log files, the root age has a 95% HPD between 800 years and ~8000 years. This is quite a big range. Given that the dating here is one of the major findings, I recommend that the authors: 2a. add deeper calibrations if possible. The manuscript mentions a number of potential calibrations later in the paper (e.g. L261-275 etc) which could, hopefully, be used. 2b. investigate if the date estimates are robust across models. It is general practice in phylogenetics to compare the fit of a range of candidate models with a formal model comparison and discuss the variation in critical parameters across these models. The authors should do this to fit with best practice (e.g. covarion + strict clock, CTMC + strict, CTMC + relaxed). With the low timing information in this analysis I suspect a strict clock might be a better fit to the data and might, paradoxically, give a more robust estimate of the age. At the very least, reporting the age estimates across a range of models will allow the authors to be clear in what they're claiming. The paper by Kolipakam et al (https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.171504) might provide a good exemplar. 2c. If no other calibrations are available, then the authors could -- if they wished to defend that date more -- conduct a formal test of whether their data has sufficient temporal information to make inferences e.g. TempEst (https://academic.oup.com/ve/article/2/1/vew007/1753488) or BETS (https://doi.org/10.1093/molbev/msaa163) 3. It is unclear what analyses were done and *why*. The methods section lists many different methods and talks about two or three ways of doing the same thing, e.g.: "These first models included both models generated procedurally, models manually build with BEAUTi (a graphical user-interface for building models), and models generated with beastling [84], also supported by simpler methods such as UPGMA [85] and NJ [86]. ... but the UPGMA and NJ results are not presented. Why use both beastling and BEAUTi when they do essentially the same thing? the authors present one result set -- but which one is it? the XML looks like a beastling file. This is made more confusing by the authors discussing three(?) datasets: a 'main' dataset, a 'swadesh' dataset, and a 'rodrigues' dataset. Only the results for 'main' are presented, which suggests that the other two datasets were not used? I recommend that the paper be streamlined to focus on a core set of analyses, with a clear logic e.g. We wanted to examine the data for borowing and conflicting signal, so we applied NeighborNet, we then wanted to infer the relationships and timing so we... 4. The introduction does not work. The ms. opens with the importance of linking archaeology and linguistics, but doesn't do so (I would also argue that the biggest game changer in terms of connecting linguistics to prehistory has been genetics and ancient DNA). The paper then makes a throw-away statement about previous TG studies being problematic, but doesn't really talk about why. The paper then moves onto discuss the importance of TG, before coming back to archaeology. I recommend deleting the first section completely and opening with the more prominent section on why TG is important. The information about archaeology and linguistics is important but fits more naturally later on with the introduction of the archaeological findings. 5. Previous work needs more emphasis. The introduction raises the issue about how problematic the previous computational work on TG has been. This could do with more detail -- it is the motivation behind this manuscript. More importantly TG is an interesting case study where we have a few unrelated research groups working on the same family coming up with different results. I recommend the authors make more of this in the introduction to highlight the differing studies. And then in the results discussion, the paper should compare and contrast the authors results with the previous work. In short: why should I prefer these results over the 3(?) or more previous studies? Minor suggestions: - Some of the figures have quite low quality. Please check the resolution. - Figure 2 is not a distribution of TG archaeological sites. Please check figure numbering. - abstract: 'relevance' - relevance to what? - footnote 2 should move into main text. It is important for the logic of the argument in that section. - The abbreviation NN for NeigborNet is not necessary. - L95-97 is redundant, delete. - L140-142 is cryptic. Explain. - L185 data -> date - L191, strictly speaking an MCC tree is not a "consensus" tree, it is a summary tree. - figure 4: 'reticular' is unusual. - figure 4: it would help if the network was colored and labelled (groups I, II, etc) to match the tree and help in the discussion section. - footnote 5. Parts of this footnote explaining what a ẟ-score means should be intext, however, the statement that quartets are the boxes on the NeighborNet is incorrect. - Appendix B: "ISO639P3code" is opaque to most people. The formal name is ISO-639-3. - Appendix C: "NeighborNet Metrics", the metrics in this table are not technically linked to NeighborNets, so just call them Phylogenetic Metrics. Also, please use the correct name ẟ-score rather than 'delta score'. Reviewer #2: The manuscript “Lexical Phylogenetics of the Tupí-Guaraní Family: Language, Archaeology, and the Problem of Chronology” written by Gerardi et al. discusses much debated problem of Tupí-Guaraní expansion. The authors correctly take in account current early radiocarbon dates related to ceramics associated to Tupí-Guaraní language groups, and they also make correct reference to some historical and ethnographic information of these groups. In general, the authors utilize quite comprehensive linguistic database of cognate data, that is, importantly, open for everyone. In their actual analysis they use Bayesian phylogenic methods in order to build Tupí-Guaraní expansion model with corresponding chronological estimations. Finally, the results are compared and contrasted to archaeological data that is summarized at the beginning of the study. I am not specialist of lexical phylogenetics, but the supporting information, figures and tables help considerable the reading, even though, I must admit, the quality of Figures 1 and 2 are poor. Also specific uncertainties and the inclusion of special cases such as Omagua and Kokama are well explained - making the analysis convincing. The authors propose, in the text, a major split at ca. 950 BP dividing Tupí-Guaraní languages in two major groups, (1.) the southern group in southern Brazil, Paraguay, Bolivia and Argentina, and (2) all other Amazonian TG languages and Tupinambá divided into four clades (pages 9-10). Nevertheless, in the Abstract the split between Southern and Northern varieties is dated as 1100 BP. In general, the authors announce “the importance of developing an interdisciplinary unified model incorporating data from both disciplines (archaeology and linguistics).” Undoubtedly this is a good objective even though not easy to achieve. First of all, one should remember that only rarely can a one-to-one relationship between the tangible and intangible evidence be demonstrated. Linguistically or historically recorded social, religious, political or linguistic changes do not immediately affect all material culture which can be detected archaeologically, or vice versa; a rapid change in material culture does not necessarily imply a simultaneous reorganization of social, religious, political or linguistic life (e.g. Braudel 1980:25–54, 64–82). In numerous cases, the lack of correlation between archaeological and intangible evidence has been documented (e.g. Pärssinen & Siiriäinen 1997; Marsh et al 2017). Also in Mexico, Michael E. Smith (1987) analyzed ethnohistorical and archaeological records of the Aztec expansion and concluded that the supposed artefactual markers of conquest spread to some provincial regions before the actual incorporation of these regions into the Aztec state. In a similar vein, Thomas Charlton (1981) has demonstrated that shifts from one period to another do not necessarily occur simultaneously in Mexican historical and archaeological sequences. Hence, before archaeologists and linguistics have agreed the exact meaning of concepts they are using, records of different disciplines should be analyzed separately to yield independent conclusions before correlation is attempted. As Smith (1987) proposed: “When the two records [of different disciplines] are compared, one should not confuse any resulting composite models with the independent primary data sets.” In other words, one should take in account the comparability of the data sets (so called Galton´s problem), and to be careful when using analogically models of other discipline. As Max Black (1962) once said: “Any would-be scientific use of an analogue model demands independent confirmation. Analogue models furnish plausible hypotheses, not proofs.” After pointing these multi- and interdisciplinary problems, I must congratulate the authors of current manuscript to separate their linguistics results from early C14-dates obtained by archaeologists during their excavations. It is not surprising that finally the authors point out “the difficulties in reconciling archaeological and linguistic data.” In fact, even though the conservative behavior of historical Tupí-Guaraní in their material and economic cultures (p.12) can be accepted a posteriori, it does not mean that we may freely apply this statement analogically, a priori, to the situation around 2000 BP. Recently Pärssinen (2021) has published evidence from the Brazilian Acre, that in the Upper Purus corrugated, finger-nail and some polychrome decoration in grog tempered ceramics, often associated to Tupí-Guaraní styles, existed already 2000 calBP mixed with ceramics associated with so called Arawakan styles - all pointing to some kind of multicultural entity that built geometrically patterned ceremonial centers called “geoglyphs” in the region. Interestingly, also Pärssinen criticizes too keen association of material remains to linguistic groups when referring to pan-Amazonian traditions. Similarly with Anna Roosevelt and Denise Schaan he prefers to return to more neutral term such as Polychrome Horizon, and in fact, divides the Horizon into two phases, the Early (ca. 300 BC – 300/500 AD) and the Late Polychrome Horizon (ca. 900 – 1550 AD). Nevertheless, even though both Horizons were multicultural, he admits that that the first Horizon may partially be related to Arawakan expansion and the second one to Tupí-Guaraní expansion (see also, e.g. Almeida & Moraes 2016; Almeida & Neves 2014). Interestingly, this last period based on various C14 dating, seems to correlate quite well with the main results of the manuscript of Gerardi et al. To conclude, I consider the manuscript of Gerardi et al. well written and its´ results to be an important contribution for multidisciplinary Tupí-Guaraní Studies. It also contains points of general interest, and in general, it satisfied all the publication criteria established by PLOS ONE. Hence, I recommend its´ publication with minor modifications. References cited: Almeida, F.O. & Moraes, C.P. 2016. A cerâmica polícroma do rio Madeira, in Cerâmicas arqueológicas da Amazônia: Rumo a uma nova síntese. Edited by C. Barreto, H. P. Lima, & C. Jaimes Betancourt, pp. 402-413. Belém: Iphan, Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi. Almeida, F.O. & Neves, E.G. 2014. The polychrome tradition at the Upper Madeira river, in Antes de Orellana. Actas del 3er Encuentro Internacional de Arqueología Amazónica. Edited by S. Rostain, v. 37, pp. 175-182. Quito: Instituto Francés de Estudios Andinos. Black, M.1962. Models and Metaphors: Studies in Language and Philosophy. Ithaca, New York: Cornell University Press. Braudel, F. 1980. On History. Translated by Sarah Matthews. London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson. Charlton, T. H. 1981. Archaeology, Ethnohistory, and Ethnology: Interpretive Interfaces. Advances in Archaeological Method and Theory 4:129–176. Marsh, Erik J., Ray Kidd, Dennis Ogburn & Victor Durán (2017). Dating the Expansion of the Inca Empire: Bayesian Models from Ecuador and Argentina. Radiocarbon 59:1, 117–140. Pärssinen, M. 2021. Tequinho Geoglyph Site and Early Polychrome Horizon 300 BC - AD 300/500 in the Brazilian State of Acre. Amazônica: Revista de Antropologia, 13/2021(1), 177-220. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18542/amazonica.v13i1.9095 Pärssinen, M. & A. Siiriäinen. 1997. Inka-style ceramics and their chronological relationship to the Inka expansion in the southern Lake Titicaca area (Bolivia). Latin American Antiquity, 8(3): 255–271. Smith, M.E. 1987. The expansion of the Aztec empire: A case study in the correlation of diachronic archaeological and ethnohistorical data. American Antiquity 52(1): 37 – 54. Reviewer #3: 1) I recommend the authors explicitly report the number of concepts (i.e., 183) used in the study they report, as it is far lower than the 447 they mention currently in text. I recommend they address whether they feel this dataset is of sufficient size to yield a sufficiently resolved tree (see Michael and Chousou-Polydouri 2019 for discussion); see also point (3). 2) I recommend the authors specifically state whether their dataset consists of root-meaning sets (see Chang et al. 2015 for this term) or cognate sets, that is, whether they have accounted for semantic shifts in determinations of cognacy. This is especially important for languages like Omagua and Kukama that have undergone relatively higher degrees of semantic shift, and more generally for the independence of the evolution of form and meaning. 3) I am concerned about the lack of explicit discussion of the widely differing posterior probabilities in Figure 5. Four of the 13 most specifically named clades have posterior probabilities of 0.67 or less (i.e., IIIb = 0.67, IVa = 0.60, IVb = 0.35, Ve = 0.58); and a fifth purported clade (Vd) is not monophyletic, a tacit claim the authors need to correct. Zooming out to the basic five named clades, III and IV are supported only with 0.65 and 0.66 posterior probabilities, respectively, and the separation of both of them from II is supported with a posterior probability of only 0.29! (Only I and V are supported with high posterior probabilities.) In fact, if one collapses all nodes with posterior probabilities lower than 0.80 -- the standard used by Michael et al. (2015), a valuable point of comparison based on 543 concepts instead of 183 -- most of the resolution/articulation in the tree in Figure 5 disappears. (As Michael and Chousou-Polydouri 2019 point out, even 0.80 is a rather permissive cutoff point; 0.90 or 0.95 would be more conservative.) On this view, while some important named clades remain (albeit with an internally more rake-like structure) -- such as I, IIIc, IVc, V -- most of the tree collapses into a massive rake, with the exception of some lower-level nodes such as that including Nheengatú, Omagua, and Kukama. (As an aside, it's striking that a node like IIIa, which Michael et al. recover with a posterior probability of 0.97, is here recovered only with a posterior probability of 0.38. I wonder if this is due to not properly identifying Omagua and Kukama cognates that have undergone semantic shift; see above.) Finally, note that the mentioned Amazonian-Southern split, which is rhetorically prominent in the authors' discussion, is recovered with a posterior probability of only 0.66. I recommend the authors provide an alternative, conservatively reported tree in which all nodes with posterior probabilities of less than 0.80 are collapsed, to facilitate comparison with extant literature (see next point). 4) The authors devote most of their discussion to engagement with Rodrigues and Cabral (2002) and related scholarship. As a computational phylogenetic study, it is rather surprising that theirs does not engage directly with the sole prior computational phylogenetic study of the family (Michael et al. 2015), systematically comparing the topology of their tree -- including differences in posterior probabilities -- with that of Michael and colleagues. It's all the more noteworthy since several of Rodrigues and Cabral's subgroups are defined by shared retentions (a point that Rodrigues himself makes in his 1984/1985 article), which are not valid criteria for subgrouping. The current study's generally low posterior probabilities, combined with the specious criteria for Rodrigues and Cabral's subgroups, results in two relatively weak points of comparison for the discussion. I recommend the authors reorient the discussion to engage with Michael et al. (2015). 5) Finally, the authors' chronological claims -- in particular that the entire TG family is a little over 1,000 years old -- are highly implausible. As early as Lathrap (1970), it was relatively clear that Tupian archaeological sites on the upper Amazon date to around 1100CE. This almost certainly corresponds to the expansion of pre-proto-Omagua-Kukama up the Amazon, a language that subsequently underwent massive restructuring (see Michael 2014) and was already differentiated into two languages by the 17th century. Yet in this study, proto-Omagua-Kukama is only about 250 years old! The authors open with a good overview of wide-ranging archaeological chronologies, and I recommend they improve the article by engaging with how its dates are significantly incommensurate not only with those archaeological chronologies but also textual documentation of some languages (e.g., Omagua) from the early 18th century (see Michael and O'Hagan 2016). ********** 6. PLOS authors have the option to publish the peer review history of their article (what does this mean?). If published, this will include your full peer review and any attached files. If you choose “no”, your identity will remain anonymous but your review may still be made public. Do you want your identity to be public for this peer review? For information about this choice, including consent withdrawal, please see our Privacy Policy. Reviewer #1: No Reviewer #2: Yes: Martti H. 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Lexical Phylogenetics of the Tupí-Guaraní Family: Language, Archaeology, and the Problem of Chronology PONE-D-21-34420R1 Dear Dr. Ferraz Gerardi, We’re pleased to inform you that your manuscript has been judged scientifically suitable for publication and will be formally accepted for publication once it meets all outstanding technical requirements. Within one week, you’ll receive an e-mail detailing the required amendments. When these have been addressed, you’ll receive a formal acceptance letter and your manuscript will be scheduled for publication. An invoice for payment will follow shortly after the formal acceptance. To ensure an efficient process, please log into Editorial Manager at http://www.editorialmanager.com/pone/, click the 'Update My Information' link at the top of the page, and double check that your user information is up-to-date. If you have any billing related questions, please contact our Author Billing department directly at authorbilling@plos.org. If your institution or institutions have a press office, please notify them about your upcoming paper to help maximize its impact. If they’ll be preparing press materials, please inform our press team as soon as possible -- no later than 48 hours after receiving the formal acceptance. Your manuscript will remain under strict press embargo until 2 pm Eastern Time on the date of publication. For more information, please contact onepress@plos.org. Kind regards, Søren Wichmann, PhD Academic Editor PLOS ONE Additional Editor Comments (optional): Reviewers' comments: Reviewer's Responses to Questions Comments to the Author 1. If the authors have adequately addressed your comments raised in a previous round of review and you feel that this manuscript is now acceptable for publication, you may indicate that here to bypass the “Comments to the Author” section, enter your conflict of interest statement in the “Confidential to Editor” section, and submit your "Accept" recommendation. Reviewer #1: All comments have been addressed Reviewer #3: All comments have been addressed ********** 2. Is the manuscript technically sound, and do the data support the conclusions? The manuscript must describe a technically sound piece of scientific research with data that supports the conclusions. Experiments must have been conducted rigorously, with appropriate controls, replication, and sample sizes. The conclusions must be drawn appropriately based on the data presented. Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #3: (No Response) ********** 3. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously? Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #3: (No Response) ********** 4. Have the authors made all data underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available? The PLOS Data policy requires authors to make all data underlying the findings described in their manuscript fully available without restriction, with rare exception (please refer to the Data Availability Statement in the manuscript PDF file). The data should be provided as part of the manuscript or its supporting information, or deposited to a public repository. For example, in addition to summary statistics, the data points behind means, medians and variance measures should be available. If there are restrictions on publicly sharing data—e.g. participant privacy or use of data from a third party—those must be specified. Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #3: (No Response) ********** 5. Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English? PLOS ONE does not copyedit accepted manuscripts, so the language in submitted articles must be clear, correct, and unambiguous. Any typographical or grammatical errors should be corrected at revision, so please note any specific errors here. Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #3: (No Response) ********** 6. Review Comments to the Author Please use the space provided to explain your answers to the questions above. You may also include additional comments for the author, including concerns about dual publication, research ethics, or publication ethics. (Please upload your review as an attachment if it exceeds 20,000 characters) Reviewer #1: I'm happy that the authors have addressed all my concerns. ........................................ Reviewer #3: (No Response) ********** 7. PLOS authors have the option to publish the peer review history of their article (what does this mean?). If published, this will include your full peer review and any attached files. If you choose “no”, your identity will remain anonymous but your review may still be made public. Do you want your identity to be public for this peer review? For information about this choice, including consent withdrawal, please see our Privacy Policy. Reviewer #1: No Reviewer #3: No ********** |
| Formally Accepted |
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PONE-D-21-34420R1 Lexical Phylogenetics of the Tupí-Guaraní Family: Language, Archaeology, and the Problem of Chronology Dear Dr. Ferraz Gerardi: I'm pleased to inform you that your manuscript has been deemed suitable for publication in PLOS ONE. Congratulations! Your manuscript is now with our production department. If your institution or institutions have a press office, please let them know about your upcoming paper now to help maximize its impact. If they'll be preparing press materials, please inform our press team within the next 48 hours. Your manuscript will remain under strict press embargo until 2 pm Eastern Time on the date of publication. For more information please contact onepress@plos.org. If we can help with anything else, please email us at plosone@plos.org. Thank you for submitting your work to PLOS ONE and supporting open access. Kind regards, PLOS ONE Editorial Office Staff on behalf of Dr. Søren Wichmann Academic Editor PLOS ONE |
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