PONE-D-21-01867

Effect of easing lockdown and restriction measures on COVID-19 epidemic projection: a case study of Saudi Arabia

PLOS ONE

Dear Dr. Shimul,

Thank you for submitting your manuscript to PLOS ONE. After careful consideration, we feel that it has merit but does not fully meet PLOS ONE’s publication criteria as it currently stands. Therefore, we invite you to submit a revised version of the manuscript that addresses the points raised during the review process.

In addition to the technical comments by Reviewer #1, please pay special attention the requests by Reviewer #1 and Reviewer #2 on:

1. reporting parameters obtained from fitting the epidemic curve to the Gompertz curve, along with uncertainties;
2. explaining how this work can help identify the correct time for easing lockdowns; and
3. showing some form of cost-benefit analysis.

Please submit your revised manuscript by May 03 2021 11:59PM. If you will need more time than this to complete your revisions, please reply to this message or contact the journal office at plosone@plos.org. When you're ready to submit your revision, log on to https://www.editorialmanager.com/pone/ and select the 'Submissions Needing Revision' folder to locate your manuscript file.

Please include the following items when submitting your revised manuscript:

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If you would like to make changes to your financial disclosure, please include your updated statement in your cover letter. Guidelines for resubmitting your figure files are available below the reviewer comments at the end of this letter.

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We look forward to receiving your revised manuscript.

Kind regards,

Siew Ann Cheong, Ph.D.

Academic Editor

PLOS ONE

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Reviewers' comments:

Reviewer's Responses to Questions

Comments to the Author

1. Is the manuscript technically sound, and do the data support the conclusions?

The manuscript must describe a technically sound piece of scientific research with data that supports the conclusions. Experiments must have been conducted rigorously, with appropriate controls, replication, and sample sizes. The conclusions must be drawn appropriately based on the data presented.

Reviewer #1: Partly

Reviewer #2: Yes

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2. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously?

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

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3. Have the authors made all data underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available?

The PLOS Data policy requires authors to make all data underlying the findings described in their manuscript fully available without restriction, with rare exception (please refer to the Data Availability Statement in the manuscript PDF file). The data should be provided as part of the manuscript or its supporting information, or deposited to a public repository. For example, in addition to summary statistics, the data points behind means, medians and variance measures should be available. If there are restrictions on publicly sharing data—e.g. participant privacy or use of data from a third party—those must be specified.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

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4. Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English?

PLOS ONE does not copyedit accepted manuscripts, so the language in submitted articles must be clear, correct, and unambiguous. Any typographical or grammatical errors should be corrected at revision, so please note any specific errors here.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: No

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5. Review Comments to the Author

Please use the space provided to explain your answers to the questions above. You may also include additional comments for the author, including concerns about dual publication, research ethics, or publication ethics. (Please upload your review as an attachment if it exceeds 20,000 characters)

Reviewer #1: The authors use two mathematical models, SIR (compartment type) and Gompertz (time series) models, with curve fitting methods to describe the time evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Kingdom Saudi Arabia before and after lifting the lockdown. It is found that predictions made before the lifting of the lockdown are not accurate (too optimistic) and the predictions made after lifting the lockdown matches real data better and with longer duration of the pandemic. The results suggest that relaxation of lockdown measures negatively impact the epidemic. Judging from the negative impact on the economy due to lockdown, the authors suggest a country should decide an optimal time of lifting lockdown and

geographical variation need to be considered.

Similar methods have been employed in analyzing the COVID-19 pandemic in existing literature during and after the lockdown. See, for example: Science 369, Issue 6500, eabb9789; Eur Phys J Plus. 2020; 135(11): 885; CJP vol:70, p170, 2021; Scientific Reports (2020) 10:22454, etc., just to name a few. Thus the novelty of utilizing data before and after the lockdown is not that apparent. There are also several flaws in the current manuscript needed to be addressed (listed below). Thus I cannot recommend its publication in the PLOS One.

1. Equation (1) and (2) is not correct. A factor of 1/N is missing.

2. The basic reproduction number Ro is not correctly defined ("So" mentioned in Ro's definition should be the initial

susceptible number. This is not defined in the manuscript either.). The proper definition should be defined by So/N,

not just So. The effective reproduction number Rt is not defined nor properly referenced.

3. Similar to point 2, there are several parameters/terminologies in Table 1 are not defined.

4. All figures have no captions.

5. Ref. 15 and 17 are missing.

6. Results of time series are shown only in Fig.6, and the fittings are not as good as SIR ones. What's the point of using

time series analysis?

7. Equation of Gompertz curve is mentioned on page 5, but the parameters for obtaining the fitting in the Fig.6 are not

mentioned in the manuscript.

8. The comparison with I and R are not shown. Fig.1-6 are just daily new cases=-dS/dt and/or infected=N-S.

9. The negative impact on the pandemic for early lifting of the lockdown seems obvious even without mathematical

modeling. How can this work help identify the proper timing for easing the lockdown?

Reviewer #2: Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English?:

The paper needs to be read and amended by someone with English as there first language

This interesting and thought provoking paper addresses a complex issue which is bounded by uncertainty. It is helpful to have a perspective from Saudi Arabia on this global issue.

The major thing that needs to be addressed is that the results section narrative needs to have much more detail in relation to what is shown in the figures.

There are also economic considerations which have to be factored in as described in: Miles DK, Stedman M, Heald AH. "Stay at Home, Protect the National Health Service, Save Lives": A cost benefit analysis of the lockdown in the United Kingdom. Int J Clin Pract. 2020

Please can this cost benefit analysis be factored in

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6. PLOS authors have the option to publish the peer review history of their article (what does this mean?). If published, this will include your full peer review and any attached files.

If you choose “no”, your identity will remain anonymous but your review may still be made public.

Do you want your identity to be public for this peer review? For information about this choice, including consent withdrawal, please see our Privacy Policy.

Reviewer #1: No

Reviewer #2: Yes: Adrain Heald

[NOTE: If reviewer comments were submitted as an attachment file, they will be attached to this email and accessible via the submission site. Please log into your account, locate the manuscript record, and check for the action link "View Attachments". If this link does not appear, there are no attachment files.]

While revising your submission, please upload your figure files to the Preflight Analysis and Conversion Engine (PACE) digital diagnostic tool, https://pacev2.apexcovantage.com/. PACE helps ensure that figures meet PLOS requirements. To use PACE, you must first register as a user. Registration is free. Then, login and navigate to the UPLOAD tab, where you will find detailed instructions on how to use the tool. If you encounter any issues or have any questions when using PACE, please email PLOS at figures@plos.org. Please note that Supporting Information files do not need this step.

PONE-D-21-01867R1

Effect of easing lockdown and restriction measures on COVID-19 epidemic projection: a case study of Saudi Arabia

PLOS ONE

Dear Dr. Shimul,

Thank you for submitting your manuscript to PLOS ONE. After careful consideration, we feel that it has merit but does not fully meet PLOS ONE’s publication criteria as it currently stands. Therefore, we invite you to submit a revised version of the manuscript that addresses the points raised during the review process.

In particular, please address the comments made by Reviewer 3.

Please submit your revised manuscript by Aug 13 2021 11:59PM. If you will need more time than this to complete your revisions, please reply to this message or contact the journal office at plosone@plos.org. When you're ready to submit your revision, log on to https://www.editorialmanager.com/pone/ and select the 'Submissions Needing Revision' folder to locate your manuscript file.

Please include the following items when submitting your revised manuscript:

• A rebuttal letter that responds to each point raised by the academic editor and reviewer(s). You should upload this letter as a separate file labeled 'Response to Reviewers'.
• A marked-up copy of your manuscript that highlights changes made to the original version. You should upload this as a separate file labeled 'Revised Manuscript with Track Changes'.
• An unmarked version of your revised paper without tracked changes. You should upload this as a separate file labeled 'Manuscript'.

If you would like to make changes to your financial disclosure, please include your updated statement in your cover letter. Guidelines for resubmitting your figure files are available below the reviewer comments at the end of this letter.

If applicable, we recommend that you deposit your laboratory protocols in protocols.io to enhance the reproducibility of your results. Protocols.io assigns your protocol its own identifier (DOI) so that it can be cited independently in the future. For instructions see: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/s/submission-guidelines#loc-laboratory-protocols. Additionally, PLOS ONE offers an option for publishing peer-reviewed Lab Protocol articles, which describe protocols hosted on protocols.io. Read more information on sharing protocols at https://plos.org/protocols?utm_medium=editorial-email&utm_source=authorletters&utm_campaign=protocols.

We look forward to receiving your revised manuscript.

Kind regards,

Siew Ann Cheong, Ph.D.

Academic Editor

PLOS ONE

Journal Requirements:

Please review your reference list to ensure that it is complete and correct. If you have cited papers that have been retracted, please include the rationale for doing so in the manuscript text, or remove these references and replace them with relevant current references. Any changes to the reference list should be mentioned in the rebuttal letter that accompanies your revised manuscript. If you need to cite a retracted article, indicate the article’s retracted status in the References list and also include a citation and full reference for the retraction notice.

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Reviewers' comments:

Reviewer's Responses to Questions

Comments to the Author

1. If the authors have adequately addressed your comments raised in a previous round of review and you feel that this manuscript is now acceptable for publication, you may indicate that here to bypass the “Comments to the Author” section, enter your conflict of interest statement in the “Confidential to Editor” section, and submit your "Accept" recommendation.

Reviewer #1: (No Response)

Reviewer #3: (No Response)

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2. Is the manuscript technically sound, and do the data support the conclusions?

The manuscript must describe a technically sound piece of scientific research with data that supports the conclusions. Experiments must have been conducted rigorously, with appropriate controls, replication, and sample sizes. The conclusions must be drawn appropriately based on the data presented.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #3: Yes

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3. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously?

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #3: Yes

**********

4. Have the authors made all data underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available?

The PLOS Data policy requires authors to make all data underlying the findings described in their manuscript fully available without restriction, with rare exception (please refer to the Data Availability Statement in the manuscript PDF file). The data should be provided as part of the manuscript or its supporting information, or deposited to a public repository. For example, in addition to summary statistics, the data points behind means, medians and variance measures should be available. If there are restrictions on publicly sharing data—e.g. participant privacy or use of data from a third party—those must be specified.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #3: No

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5. Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English?

PLOS ONE does not copyedit accepted manuscripts, so the language in submitted articles must be clear, correct, and unambiguous. Any typographical or grammatical errors should be corrected at revision, so please note any specific errors here.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #3: Yes

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6. Review Comments to the Author

Please use the space provided to explain your answers to the questions above. You may also include additional comments for the author, including concerns about dual publication, research ethics, or publication ethics. (Please upload your review as an attachment if it exceeds 20,000 characters)

Reviewer #1: (No Response)

Reviewer #3: The paper addressed important issue as it relates to Kingdom Saudi Arabia (KSA).

Below are my comments.

1. Though, the introduction looks well caved, there are more to be done to make the paper suit publication in a journal of the like of PLOS ONE. First, the authors need to be more factual and coherent in the presentation of their arguments. For instance, in making reference to the historical trend in COVID-19 outbreak globally, reference was given to January 18, 2021 while similar instance in the case of KSA referred to October 02, 2020. There is need to either update KS to 2021 or refer global data to October, 2020. The former suggestion is however preferred. See page 3 paragraph 1 lines 1-4.

2. More so, the authors need to strengthen the contribution of their work to the literature because I am aware a number of papers have been published on the topic and in KSA in particular. The arguments that the study compared several predictions using the SIR model before and after lockdown measures are the enough.

3. The paper in its present form is deficient in terms of contribution to the literature due to its lack deep review in recent studies relating to lockdown. The following studies should be considered.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.imu.2020.100420

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hlpt.2020.09.004

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11869-020-00918-3

https://doi.org/10.1007/s41996-020-00070-1

https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2020.1828809

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2020.100217

4. For robustness sake, the study can dwell more on lockdown data available at Google mobility data (https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/). The data shows how visits to places, such as grocery stores and parks, are changing in each geographic region during the lockdown periods.

5. The language structure of the paper can be improved. For instance, the sentence structure in paragraph 2, lines 4-11 is too long. Also, when introducing new concept, full meaning should be provided before abbreviating. For instance, ICU used in paragraph 2 line 12 should be corrected and other related ones.

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7. PLOS authors have the option to publish the peer review history of their article (what does this mean?). If published, this will include your full peer review and any attached files.

If you choose “no”, your identity will remain anonymous but your review may still be made public.

Do you want your identity to be public for this peer review? For information about this choice, including consent withdrawal, please see our Privacy Policy.

Reviewer #1: No

Reviewer #3: No

[NOTE: If reviewer comments were submitted as an attachment file, they will be attached to this email and accessible via the submission site. Please log into your account, locate the manuscript record, and check for the action link "View Attachments". If this link does not appear, there are no attachment files.]

While revising your submission, please upload your figure files to the Preflight Analysis and Conversion Engine (PACE) digital diagnostic tool, https://pacev2.apexcovantage.com/. PACE helps ensure that figures meet PLOS requirements. To use PACE, you must first register as a user. Registration is free. Then, login and navigate to the UPLOAD tab, where you will find detailed instructions on how to use the tool. If you encounter any issues or have any questions when using PACE, please email PLOS at figures@plos.org. Please note that Supporting Information files do not need this step.

Effect of easing lockdown and restriction measures on COVID-19 epidemic projection: a case study of Saudi Arabia

PONE-D-21-01867R2

Dear Dr. Shimul,

We’re pleased to inform you that your manuscript has been judged scientifically suitable for publication and will be formally accepted for publication once it meets all outstanding technical requirements.

Within one week, you’ll receive an e-mail detailing the required amendments. When these have been addressed, you’ll receive a formal acceptance letter and your manuscript will be scheduled for publication.

An invoice for payment will follow shortly after the formal acceptance. To ensure an efficient process, please log into Editorial Manager at http://www.editorialmanager.com/pone/, click the 'Update My Information' link at the top of the page, and double check that your user information is up-to-date. If you have any billing related questions, please contact our Author Billing department directly at authorbilling@plos.org.

If your institution or institutions have a press office, please notify them about your upcoming paper to help maximize its impact. If they’ll be preparing press materials, please inform our press team as soon as possible -- no later than 48 hours after receiving the formal acceptance. Your manuscript will remain under strict press embargo until 2 pm Eastern Time on the date of publication. For more information, please contact onepress@plos.org.

Kind regards,

Siew Ann Cheong, Ph.D.

Academic Editor

PLOS ONE

Additional Editor Comments (optional):

Reviewers' comments:

Reviewer's Responses to Questions

Comments to the Author

1. If the authors have adequately addressed your comments raised in a previous round of review and you feel that this manuscript is now acceptable for publication, you may indicate that here to bypass the “Comments to the Author” section, enter your conflict of interest statement in the “Confidential to Editor” section, and submit your "Accept" recommendation.

Reviewer #3: All comments have been addressed

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2. Is the manuscript technically sound, and do the data support the conclusions?

The manuscript must describe a technically sound piece of scientific research with data that supports the conclusions. Experiments must have been conducted rigorously, with appropriate controls, replication, and sample sizes. The conclusions must be drawn appropriately based on the data presented.

Reviewer #3: Yes

**********

3. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously?

Reviewer #3: Yes

**********

4. Have the authors made all data underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available?

The PLOS Data policy requires authors to make all data underlying the findings described in their manuscript fully available without restriction, with rare exception (please refer to the Data Availability Statement in the manuscript PDF file). The data should be provided as part of the manuscript or its supporting information, or deposited to a public repository. For example, in addition to summary statistics, the data points behind means, medians and variance measures should be available. If there are restrictions on publicly sharing data—e.g. participant privacy or use of data from a third party—those must be specified.

Reviewer #3: Yes

**********

5. Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English?

PLOS ONE does not copyedit accepted manuscripts, so the language in submitted articles must be clear, correct, and unambiguous. Any typographical or grammatical errors should be corrected at revision, so please note any specific errors here.

Reviewer #3: Yes

**********

6. Review Comments to the Author

Please use the space provided to explain your answers to the questions above. You may also include additional comments for the author, including concerns about dual publication, research ethics, or publication ethics. (Please upload your review as an attachment if it exceeds 20,000 characters)

Reviewer #3: I congratulate the authors for a job well done. They have provided sufficient review in lieu of the comments raised.

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7. PLOS authors have the option to publish the peer review history of their article (what does this mean?). If published, this will include your full peer review and any attached files.

If you choose “no”, your identity will remain anonymous but your review may still be made public.

Do you want your identity to be public for this peer review? For information about this choice, including consent withdrawal, please see our Privacy Policy.

Reviewer #3: No