PONE-D-21-04530

The Effect of Human Mobility Restrictions on the COVID-19 Transmission Network in China

PLOS ONE

Dear Dr. Oka,

Thank you for submitting your manuscript to PLOS ONE. After careful consideration, we feel that it has merit but does not fully meet PLOS ONE’s publication criteria as it currently stands. Therefore, we invite you to submit a revised version of the manuscript that addresses the points raised during the review process.

Please submit your revised manuscript by May 23 2021 11:59PM. If you will need more time than this to complete your revisions, please reply to this message or contact the journal office at plosone@plos.org. When you're ready to submit your revision, log on to https://www.editorialmanager.com/pone/ and select the 'Submissions Needing Revision' folder to locate your manuscript file.

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If you would like to make changes to your financial disclosure, please include your updated statement in your cover letter. Guidelines for resubmitting your figure files are available below the reviewer comments at the end of this letter.

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We look forward to receiving your revised manuscript.

Kind regards,

Bing Xue, Ph.D.

Academic Editor

PLOS ONE

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1. In the Methods section please provide a citation for the Baidu mobility data, and please provide further clarification whether this is a publicly accessible database. Furthermore, please specify the date range over which data was extracted.

1. Thank you for stating in your Funding Statement:

This research is partially funded by the Centre for Development Economics and Sustainability (CDES) at Monash University.

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Reviewers' comments:

Reviewer's Responses to Questions

Comments to the Author

1. Is the manuscript technically sound, and do the data support the conclusions?

The manuscript must describe a technically sound piece of scientific research with data that supports the conclusions. Experiments must have been conducted rigorously, with appropriate controls, replication, and sample sizes. The conclusions must be drawn appropriately based on the data presented.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Partly

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2. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously?

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: No

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3. Have the authors made all data underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available?

The PLOS Data policy requires authors to make all data underlying the findings described in their manuscript fully available without restriction, with rare exception (please refer to the Data Availability Statement in the manuscript PDF file). The data should be provided as part of the manuscript or its supporting information, or deposited to a public repository. For example, in addition to summary statistics, the data points behind means, medians and variance measures should be available. If there are restrictions on publicly sharing data—e.g. participant privacy or use of data from a third party—those must be specified.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

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4. Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English?

PLOS ONE does not copyedit accepted manuscripts, so the language in submitted articles must be clear, correct, and unambiguous. Any typographical or grammatical errors should be corrected at revision, so please note any specific errors here.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: No

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5. Review Comments to the Author

Please use the space provided to explain your answers to the questions above. You may also include additional comments for the author, including concerns about dual publication, research ethics, or publication ethics. (Please upload your review as an attachment if it exceeds 20,000 characters)

Reviewer #1: The paper deals with the mobility restrictions and Covid-19 infections in some regiosn in China from the early days of the epidemic. It is an important topic for future policy making and reviews. The authros have collected reliable data from sources related the epidemic outburst period and made the stochastic analysis with the SIR model. The general conclusion is that the major infections were due to local transmissions, and the mobility restrictions are effective.

The reviewer agrees with the results and conclusions, and the method and data are also relaible and appropirate to make the analysis. The paper is well written in the general design and flow. It is recommended to publish with following revisions:

1. The four special admisnistrative areas in China is offically called Municipalities, which include Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Chongqing.

2. In Figure 3, the patern in Hong Kong is so different from other regions. Please explain about the pecial reason, possibly the difference on the policy. It is a good point to make comparisons.

3. Are there differences on policies in regions? How about the effectiveness?

4. It is possible to itemize the restrictions like highway, railway, and airlines?

Reviewer #2: General comments:

To my thinking, this paper has not been well organized and written. First, the structure of this paper is incomplete. Second, little new insights into the propagation of COVID-19 among 33 regions in China has been brought to readers.

Therefore, the paper is not acceptable for publication in its present form.

Specific suggestions

1 [The structure of Abstract is not complete] The abstract was not well organized in this paper. A good abstract comprises the following four parts: background, methods, results or findings, conclusions or significance. The components of this paper's abstract is not complete.

2 [Figures ] In order to make the content of a plot clear, the text labels should be added to both the x- and the y- axes (e.g., figure 1-3).

3 [Models] The theoretical basis of the model presented in the paper is not clear. As we know, mathematical models fall into two types: mechanism type and parameter type. Correspondingly, the modeling method can be divided into two categories: analytical method and experimental method. What method does the author used in this article? What model to build? The author's modeling idea and process are not clear enough.

4 [Results and conclusions] Conclusions are different from results. Generally speaking, results come from or are directly based on data analysis. In contrast, conclusions come from discussion and represent the climax of discussion. If the result is regarded as the heart of an academic paper, the discussion can be treated as the nerve center of the paper. Discussions form a bridge between results and conclusions. In this paper, the results are confused with conclusions.

5 [Lack of discussion] The section of Results represents the heart of a paper, and the section of Discussion is the paper’s nerve center. [See: Robert A. Day, Barbara Gastel. How to Write and Publish a Scientific Paper (Sixth Edition). Cambridge University Press, 2003] The analytical process of discussion is not clear. The section of Discussion in a paper is generally involved with 3 or 4 parts: (1) main points, which response to the questions put in introduction; (2) comments on related studies or problems; (3) shortcomings or deficiency in study method or process; (4) conclusions, which can be separated to make the final section. [See: Bjorn Gustavii (2002). How to Write and Illustrate a Scientific Paper. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press]

6 [Conclusions are not well extracted] The conclusions should be made clearer in expressions and meanings. The important conclusions should be given three times in a paper: once in the Abstract, again in the Introduction, and again (in more detail probably) in the Discussion (if it contains a Conclusion paragraph) or Conclusions (if this part is separated as the final section). [See: Robert A. Day, Barbara Gastel. How to Write and Publish a Scientific Paper (Sixth Edition). Cambridge University Press, 2003]

The problem with this article is that there is no significant difference between the section of conclusion part and the section of abstract. As indicated above, a complete abstract comprises four components: background and aim, method, results, and conclusions.

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6. PLOS authors have the option to publish the peer review history of their article (what does this mean?). If published, this will include your full peer review and any attached files.

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Reviewer #1: Yes: Ji Wang

Reviewer #2: No

[NOTE: If reviewer comments were submitted as an attachment file, they will be attached to this email and accessible via the submission site. Please log into your account, locate the manuscript record, and check for the action link "View Attachments". If this link does not appear, there are no attachment files.]

While revising your submission, please upload your figure files to the Preflight Analysis and Conversion Engine (PACE) digital diagnostic tool, https://pacev2.apexcovantage.com/. PACE helps ensure that figures meet PLOS requirements. To use PACE, you must first register as a user. Registration is free. Then, login and navigate to the UPLOAD tab, where you will find detailed instructions on how to use the tool. If you encounter any issues or have any questions when using PACE, please email PLOS at figures@plos.org. Please note that Supporting Information files do not need this step.

PONE-D-21-04530R1

The Effect of Human Mobility Restrictions on the COVID-19 Transmission Network in China

PLOS ONE

Dear Dr. Oka,

Thank you for submitting your manuscript to PLOS ONE. After careful consideration, we feel that it has merit but does not fully meet PLOS ONE’s publication criteria as it currently stands. Therefore, we invite you to submit a revised version of the manuscript that addresses the points raised during the review process.

Please submit your revised manuscript by Jul 23 2021 11:59PM. If you will need more time than this to complete your revisions, please reply to this message or contact the journal office at plosone@plos.org. When you're ready to submit your revision, log on to https://www.editorialmanager.com/pone/ and select the 'Submissions Needing Revision' folder to locate your manuscript file.

Please include the following items when submitting your revised manuscript:

• A rebuttal letter that responds to each point raised by the academic editor and reviewer(s). You should upload this letter as a separate file labeled 'Response to Reviewers'.
• A marked-up copy of your manuscript that highlights changes made to the original version. You should upload this as a separate file labeled 'Revised Manuscript with Track Changes'.
• An unmarked version of your revised paper without tracked changes. You should upload this as a separate file labeled 'Manuscript'.

If you would like to make changes to your financial disclosure, please include your updated statement in your cover letter. Guidelines for resubmitting your figure files are available below the reviewer comments at the end of this letter.

If applicable, we recommend that you deposit your laboratory protocols in protocols.io to enhance the reproducibility of your results. Protocols.io assigns your protocol its own identifier (DOI) so that it can be cited independently in the future. For instructions see: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/s/submission-guidelines#loc-laboratory-protocols. Additionally, PLOS ONE offers an option for publishing peer-reviewed Lab Protocol articles, which describe protocols hosted on protocols.io. Read more information on sharing protocols at https://plos.org/protocols?utm_medium=editorial-email&utm_source=authorletters&utm_campaign=protocols.

We look forward to receiving your revised manuscript.

Kind regards,

Bing Xue, Ph.D.

Academic Editor

PLOS ONE

Journal Requirements:

Please review your reference list to ensure that it is complete and correct. If you have cited papers that have been retracted, please include the rationale for doing so in the manuscript text, or remove these references and replace them with relevant current references. Any changes to the reference list should be mentioned in the rebuttal letter that accompanies your revised manuscript. If you need to cite a retracted article, indicate the article’s retracted status in the References list and also include a citation and full reference for the retraction notice.

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Reviewers' comments:

Reviewer's Responses to Questions

Comments to the Author

1. If the authors have adequately addressed your comments raised in a previous round of review and you feel that this manuscript is now acceptable for publication, you may indicate that here to bypass the “Comments to the Author” section, enter your conflict of interest statement in the “Confidential to Editor” section, and submit your "Accept" recommendation.

Reviewer #1: All comments have been addressed

Reviewer #2: (No Response)

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2. Is the manuscript technically sound, and do the data support the conclusions?

The manuscript must describe a technically sound piece of scientific research with data that supports the conclusions. Experiments must have been conducted rigorously, with appropriate controls, replication, and sample sizes. The conclusions must be drawn appropriately based on the data presented.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: (No Response)

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3. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously?

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

**********

4. Have the authors made all data underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available?

The PLOS Data policy requires authors to make all data underlying the findings described in their manuscript fully available without restriction, with rare exception (please refer to the Data Availability Statement in the manuscript PDF file). The data should be provided as part of the manuscript or its supporting information, or deposited to a public repository. For example, in addition to summary statistics, the data points behind means, medians and variance measures should be available. If there are restrictions on publicly sharing data—e.g. participant privacy or use of data from a third party—those must be specified.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

**********

5. Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English?

PLOS ONE does not copyedit accepted manuscripts, so the language in submitted articles must be clear, correct, and unambiguous. Any typographical or grammatical errors should be corrected at revision, so please note any specific errors here.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

**********

6. Review Comments to the Author

Please use the space provided to explain your answers to the questions above. You may also include additional comments for the author, including concerns about dual publication, research ethics, or publication ethics. (Please upload your review as an attachment if it exceeds 20,000 characters)

Reviewer #1: (No Response)

Reviewer #2: After revision, the quality of this paper has been improved. The author deals with the comments within his ability. I recommend that this paper be published in PLoS ONE with minor amendments.

The results of this paper provide useful information about COVID-19 transmission network in China. However, the discussion part and conclusion part are still not well written.

First, the part of the discussion is incomplete. Please refer to my first round of comments.

Second, the value of this study cannot be seen from the section of conclusions. The conclusion part does not give useful information about COVID-19 transmission network in China.

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7. PLOS authors have the option to publish the peer review history of their article (what does this mean?). If published, this will include your full peer review and any attached files.

If you choose “no”, your identity will remain anonymous but your review may still be made public.

Do you want your identity to be public for this peer review? For information about this choice, including consent withdrawal, please see our Privacy Policy.

Reviewer #1: Yes: Ji Wang, Ningbo University, wangji@nbu.edu.cn

Reviewer #2: No

[NOTE: If reviewer comments were submitted as an attachment file, they will be attached to this email and accessible via the submission site. Please log into your account, locate the manuscript record, and check for the action link "View Attachments". If this link does not appear, there are no attachment files.]

While revising your submission, please upload your figure files to the Preflight Analysis and Conversion Engine (PACE) digital diagnostic tool, https://pacev2.apexcovantage.com/. PACE helps ensure that figures meet PLOS requirements. To use PACE, you must first register as a user. Registration is free. Then, login and navigate to the UPLOAD tab, where you will find detailed instructions on how to use the tool. If you encounter any issues or have any questions when using PACE, please email PLOS at figures@plos.org. Please note that Supporting Information files do not need this step.

The Effect of Human Mobility Restrictions on the COVID-19 Transmission Network in China

PONE-D-21-04530R2

Dear Dr. Oka,

We’re pleased to inform you that your manuscript has been judged scientifically suitable for publication and will be formally accepted for publication once it meets all outstanding technical requirements.

Within one week, you’ll receive an e-mail detailing the required amendments. When these have been addressed, you’ll receive a formal acceptance letter and your manuscript will be scheduled for publication.

An invoice for payment will follow shortly after the formal acceptance. To ensure an efficient process, please log into Editorial Manager at http://www.editorialmanager.com/pone/, click the 'Update My Information' link at the top of the page, and double check that your user information is up-to-date. If you have any billing related questions, please contact our Author Billing department directly at authorbilling@plos.org.

If your institution or institutions have a press office, please notify them about your upcoming paper to help maximize its impact. If they’ll be preparing press materials, please inform our press team as soon as possible -- no later than 48 hours after receiving the formal acceptance. Your manuscript will remain under strict press embargo until 2 pm Eastern Time on the date of publication. For more information, please contact onepress@plos.org.

Kind regards,

Bing Xue, Ph.D.

Academic Editor

PLOS ONE

Additional Editor Comments (optional):

Reviewers' comments: