PONE-D-19-21159

Reanalysis of the 2000 Rift Valley fever outbreak in Southwestern Arabia

PLOS ONE

Dear Dr. Tucker,

Thank you very much for submitting your manuscript "Reanalysis of the 2000 Rift Valley fever outbreak in Southwestern Arabia" (#PONE-D-19-21159) for review by PLOS ONE. As with all papers submitted to the journal, your manuscript was fully evaluated by academic editor (myself) and by independent peer reviewers. The reviewers appreciated the attention to an important health topic, but they raised substantial concerns about the paper that must be addressed before this manuscript can be accurately assessed for meeting the PLOS ONE criteria. Therefore, if you feel these issues can be adequately addressed, we invite you to submit a revised version of the manuscript that addresses the points raised during the review process. We can’t, of course, promise publication at that time.

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Abdallah M. Samy, PhD

Academic Editor

PLOS ONE

Additional Editor Comments:

I invited and received three reviews for your manuscript. All reviews raised some substantial concerns about your manuscript as it currently stands. As such, I would recommend “major revision”. I would kindly ask you to go through all comments raised by each reviewer and address them properly before sending a revised version of this manuscript. Please check all PLOS ONE style requirements available via https://journals.plos.org/plosone/s/submission-guidelines before submitting the revised version. 

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Reviewers' comments:

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Comments to the Author

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Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

Reviewer #3: Yes

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2. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously?

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

Reviewer #3: No

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Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

Reviewer #3: No

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Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

Reviewer #3: No

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5. Review Comments to the Author

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Reviewer #1: The submitted Ms deals with an important topic and presented in very good shape that reflects the authors’ effort in planning and carrying it. However, very few comments and corrections were inserted within the text, these are:

1. Page 5, Line 92: are least susceptible Delete

2. Page 5, Line 96: Change “be a reported” to reported

3. In the whole text, replace/write Jazan for state, Jizan for city, for examples:

a. Change “Jizan” to Jazan in “Page 9, Line 186; Page 10, Line 193; Page 10, Line 193; Page 10, Line 195”

b. Page 13, Line 264: Jazan to Jizan

4. Page 10, Line 192: Change “reported to” reported that

5. Page 11, Line 223: (Fig 4) delete, repetition

6. Page 13, Line 267: Change “suggested to” suggested that

7. Page 14, Line 281: Change “arabiens” to arabiensis

8. Page 14, Line 281: and not Italic

9. Since mosquito control is the responsibility and taken by Health authorities:

a. Change Ministry of Agriculture to Ministries of Agriculture and Health (Page 14, Line 288)

b. Change “Agriculture” to Health (Page 16, Line 328)

Reviewer #2: The authors evaluate the 2000 Rift Valley fever virus outbreak in Yemen and Saudi Arabia using satellite data to determine favourable conditions based on rainfall and water availability for mosquitos. The authors further evaluate conditions from 2000 to 2018 to identify favourable conditions for Rift Valley fever virus outbreaks in the region.

Minor comments

Line 94 Replace with There is variability in the susceptibility of different species and breeds with sheep, goats, cattle and camels being the primary species affected.

Can this satellite data be used to determine the risk of Rift Valley fever virus outbreaks in regions where the disease is cyclically present such as South Africa and Kenya?

This is important as if this is the case this could be used to potentially predict Rift Valley fever virus outbreaks and be used to allow vaccination of animals prior to outbreaks.

Reviewer #3: The authors anticipated RVF outbreak in Saudi Arabia using remote sensing data. The manuscript is well-written; however, I have some concerns to the manuscript as it currently stands. These points should be addressed before considering a revised version of this manuscript. 

- Provide justification for using this very finer spatial resolution for your study. Do you have RVF data in such spatial resolution for comparison. 

- Similar analyses was presented early in 2014 ASTMH meeting by Egyptian researcher working at the University of Kansas (Check http://tiny.cc/95r2cz). I remember that Fig 1 was presented by Samy during the meeting, particularly the close-up map to Saudi Arabia with prediction to the West coast of Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Authors should refer clearly to this study across the manuscript text and cite it to the reference section.   

- How authors managed to scale different spatial resolution of diverse climate data to present data with a finer resolution. 

- These models didn't consider any additional dimensions for the key roles of the vector in anticipating the location with suitable conditions for disease occurrence. 

- Robust validation approach for your prediction; i think authors should provide sensitive tools to evaluate their results. Positive cases identified in Western Saudi Arabia were more than just 4 sites presented in Fig 1 and 3. 

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Reviewer #1: Yes: Mohamed A Kenawy

Reviewer #2: No

Reviewer #3: No

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Attachments

Attachment

Submitted filename: REV-PONE-D-19-21159_reviewer.pdf

Reanalysis of the 2000 Rift Valley fever outbreak in Southwestern Arabia

PONE-D-19-21159R1

Dear Dr. Tucker,

We are pleased to inform you that your manuscript, "Reanalysis of the 2000 Rift Valley fever outbreak in Southwestern Arabia" (PONE-D-19-21159R1), has been judged scientifically suitable for publication and will be formally accepted for publication once it complies with all outstanding technical requirements.

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With kind regards,

Abdallah M. Samy, PhD

Academic Editor

PLOS ONE