Peer Review History
| Original SubmissionAugust 15, 2019 |
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PONE-D-19-23100 Learning about the Ellsberg Paradox reduces, but does not abolish, ambiguity aversion PLOS ONE Dear Ms. Jia, Thank you for submitting your manuscript to PLOS ONE. After careful consideration, we feel that it has merit but does not fully meet PLOS ONE’s publication criteria as it currently stands. Therefore, we invite you to submit a revised version of the manuscript that addresses the points raised during the review process. I made the decision on your manuscript after receiving comments from two scholars in the field and giving the paper a review myself. Should you decide to submit a revision of your paper please be sure to address all the comments by the reviewers in your response document. I would like you to in particular address the data issue raised by reviewer #1. In addition to Rev1 and Rev2's comments please incorporate responses to a few things from me as well.
We would appreciate receiving your revised manuscript by Nov 14 2019 11:59PM. When you are ready to submit your revision, log on to https://www.editorialmanager.com/pone/ and select the 'Submissions Needing Revision' folder to locate your manuscript file. If you would like to make changes to your financial disclosure, please include your updated statement in your cover letter. To enhance the reproducibility of your results, we recommend that if applicable you deposit your laboratory protocols in protocols.io, where a protocol can be assigned its own identifier (DOI) such that it can be cited independently in the future. For instructions see: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/s/submission-guidelines#loc-laboratory-protocols Please include the following items when submitting your revised manuscript:
Please note while forming your response, if your article is accepted, you may have the opportunity to make the peer review history publicly available. The record will include editor decision letters (with reviews) and your responses to reviewer comments. If eligible, we will contact you to opt in or out. We look forward to receiving your revised manuscript. Kind regards, Jason Anthony Aimone Academic Editor PLOS ONE Journal Requirements: 1. When submitting your revision, we need you to address these additional requirements. Please ensure that your manuscript meets PLOS ONE's style requirements, including those for file naming. The PLOS ONE style templates can be found at http://www.journals.plos.org/plosone/s/file?id=wjVg/PLOSOne_formatting_sample_main_body.pdf and http://www.journals.plos.org/plosone/s/file?id=ba62/PLOSOne_formatting_sample_title_authors_affiliations.pdf Comments to the Author 1. Is the manuscript technically sound, and do the data support the conclusions? The manuscript must describe a technically sound piece of scientific research with data that supports the conclusions. Experiments must have been conducted rigorously, with appropriate controls, replication, and sample sizes. The conclusions must be drawn appropriately based on the data presented. Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #2: Yes ********** 2. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously? Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #2: Yes ********** 3. Have the authors made all data underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available? The PLOS Data policy requires authors to make all data underlying the findings described in their manuscript fully available without restriction, with rare exception (please refer to the Data Availability Statement in the manuscript PDF file). The data should be provided as part of the manuscript or its supporting information, or deposited to a public repository. For example, in addition to summary statistics, the data points behind means, medians and variance measures should be available. If there are restrictions on publicly sharing data—e.g. participant privacy or use of data from a third party—those must be specified. Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #2: Yes ********** 4. Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English? PLOS ONE does not copyedit accepted manuscripts, so the language in submitted articles must be clear, correct, and unambiguous. Any typographical or grammatical errors should be corrected at revision, so please note any specific errors here. Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #2: Yes ********** 5. Review Comments to the Author Please use the space provided to explain your answers to the questions above. You may also include additional comments for the author, including concerns about dual publication, research ethics, or publication ethics. (Please upload your review as an attachment if it exceeds 20,000 characters) Reviewer #1: I found the study to be interesting, and the experimental design and statistical analysis to be sound. I have the following minor comments: 1) In the raw data files, the ReadMe file indicates that the choice.RESP variable representing a subject's choice in a given trial should be either 0 or 1. However, some choice responses (e.g., for subject 1923 in the EF folder) takes values 0, 1, or 2. It would be great if the authors can clarify this discrepancy. 2) I would suggest that the authors cite Liu and Colman (2009), "Ambiguity aversion in the long run: Repeated decisions under risk and uncertainty" (Journal of Economic Psychology, 30(3): 277-284). That paper presents a different experiment of repeated choices under ambiguity without an intervention and finds that ambiguity aversion is reduced in repeated-choice environments relative to a single-choice condition. Reviewer #2: This study examined the extent to which two different interventions reduced ambiguity aversion in an economic lottery decision-making task. This study definitely contributes to the growing literature on ambiguity and risk attitudes especially in laying foundational work on conducting interventions on reducing biases that lead to suboptimal decision-making. There are a few areas, however, in which the authors could provide more justification regarding their modeling procedure and details of the task. My comments are enumerated below. 1. The authors state in the introduction that many individuals “appear pessimistic in estimating the real outcome probability.” This seems to run contrary to a large body of literature in psychology showing that individuals exhibit an optimism bias especially when involving personal risks (see Neil Weinstein and Tali Sharot’s work). Do individuals tend to exhibit pessimistic behavior only in economic tasks? Second, the authors state on line 98, p.5 that risk and ambiguity attitudes are largely uncorrelated. However, even in one of the papers the authors cited, it states that risk and ambiguity attitudes are weakly correlated. Weak correlations are not the same as no correlations. In fact, the authors end up finding that risk and ambiguity attitudes are indeed correlated in both the pre- and post-intervention conditions. 2. The authors should provide more information regarding the details of experimentation. Did participants do the experiment on the computer? How long did the task take to complete? How long were they given to make a decision? Before the pre-intervention session, were the participants able to practice the task? 3. Did the authors control for individual differences in numeracy? 4. Did the authors examine reaction time to make a decision when choosing between the reference lottery and either an ambiguous or risky gamble? This would allow the authors to test whether participants were actually trying to do the calculations that they had been taught either in the AC or NC intervention by comparing pre and post decision RTs. 5. How many times did the participants in the AC condition receive guidance or feedback on the correct answer during computing objective probabilities? Was there variability in the extent to which participants were able to do the calculations? I know the samples were relatively small, but it would be interesting to know which people were most affected by the AC or NC intervention. For instance, are people who are extremely ambiguity averse or risk averse, make the most changes in their behavior. 6. Add to the limitations that this was a Yale University population. It is likely that this population may not be representative of the general population. 7. Typically in these ambiguity/risk lottery choice tasks, participants are usually required to choose between a certain option and a risky or ambiguous option. In the present study, the authors used a reference lottery (50% of $5) and either a risky or ambiguous option. What was the rationale for giving participants a reference lottery versus a certain option? 8. In the introduction the authors state that risk and ambiguity attitudes are “largely uncorrelated.” Then, why on pg. 11 lines 226-231 does ambiguity attitude rely on a person’s risk attitude? This implies that there is a relationship between ambiguity and risk attitudes. 9. Why did the authors fit each participant’s choices in the risky trials instead of estimating risk and ambiguity together in the same model as in Levy et al., 2010 and other studies using a similar task? Would the authors get similar results if they used a similar model to estimate risk and ambiguity attitudes simultaneously within the same model? Similarly, would the changes in ambiguity attitudes and risk attitudes show the same results as the metric of proportion of choices? 10. How did the authors come up with the limits for [0, 2.0987] for the risk attitude parameter? Was this based on simulations using this task design? If so, the authors should provide some information about this procedure for others to clarity and replication purposes. 11. How were the participants’ choices pre-processed? Please provide additional details, and what function in MATLAB was used to estimate risk and ambiguity attitudes? The authors provided the packages used in R but not in MATLAB. 12. The first paragraph under results was redundant text from the Methods section of the paper. I suggest the authors remove this text. 13. In S1, the authors state “what is your chance of winning across these two lotteries? And the participant put 50 out of 100. Why is this incorrect? As the next slide then says, your chance of winning in these lotteries is actually 50 out of 100. 14. I’m very unclear on how the subjects were given feedback regarding their responses, was it just the fact that there was the “return” button on the screen after they submitted their responses? Were they ever shown the actual answer or were they just expected to eventually reach the correct answer? Somewhere, in the supplementary material it would be helpful if the authors actually provided what the accurate response should be. 15. The authors should provide a rationale for why they only examined trials in which the ambiguous lottery offered more than $5, so this basically excludes trials in which subjects were presented risky/ambiguity lotteries of $5. Why exclude these? Is this a typical procedure for estimating ambiguity attitudes? It seems that the authors are selectively choosing the conditions to determine a person’s ambiguity attitude. How people behave when the ambiguous lottery offered the same amount as the reference lottery may also inform their ambiguity attitude. What are the results if the authors choose to include all trials? 16. Why do the authors think that there were no differences between the AC and NC condition? Given that many of their findings demonstrated the similarity between these two conditions, it would be helpful for the reader if the authors provided some explanations as to what factors may have contributed to these findings? 17. Did the authors collect any variables that could be indicators of SES? If so, the authors could potentially test the affects of SES on ambiguity and risk attitudes as suggested in their discussion. ********** 6. PLOS authors have the option to publish the peer review history of their article (what does this mean?). If published, this will include your full peer review and any attached files. If you choose “no”, your identity will remain anonymous but your review may still be made public. Do you want your identity to be public for this peer review? For information about this choice, including consent withdrawal, please see our Privacy Policy. Reviewer #1: No Reviewer #2: No [NOTE: If reviewer comments were submitted as an attachment file, they will be attached to this email and accessible via the submission site. Please log into your account, locate the manuscript record, and check for the action link "View Attachments". If this link does not appear, there are no attachment files to be viewed.] While revising your submission, please upload your figure files to the Preflight Analysis and Conversion Engine (PACE) digital diagnostic tool, https://pacev2.apexcovantage.com/. PACE helps ensure that figures meet PLOS requirements. To use PACE, you must first register as a user. Registration is free. 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| Revision 1 |
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Learning about the Ellsberg Paradox reduces, but does not abolish, ambiguity aversion PONE-D-19-23100R1 Dear Dr. Jia, We are pleased to inform you that your manuscript has been judged scientifically suitable for publication and will be formally accepted for publication once it complies with all outstanding technical requirements. Within one week, you will receive an e-mail containing information on the amendments required prior to publication. When all required modifications have been addressed, you will receive a formal acceptance letter and your manuscript will proceed to our production department and be scheduled for publication. Shortly after the formal acceptance letter is sent, an invoice for payment will follow. To ensure an efficient production and billing process, please log into Editorial Manager at https://www.editorialmanager.com/pone/, click the "Update My Information" link at the top of the page, and update your user information. If you have any billing related questions, please contact our Author Billing department directly at authorbilling@plos.org. If your institution or institutions have a press office, please notify them about your upcoming paper to enable them to help maximize its impact. If they will be preparing press materials for this manuscript, you must inform our press team as soon as possible and no later than 48 hours after receiving the formal acceptance. Your manuscript will remain under strict press embargo until 2 pm Eastern Time on the date of publication. For more information, please contact onepress@plos.org. With kind regards, Jason Anthony Aimone Academic Editor PLOS ONE Additional Editor Comments (optional): Reviewers' comments: Reviewer's Responses to Questions Comments to the Author 1. If the authors have adequately addressed your comments raised in a previous round of review and you feel that this manuscript is now acceptable for publication, you may indicate that here to bypass the “Comments to the Author” section, enter your conflict of interest statement in the “Confidential to Editor” section, and submit your "Accept" recommendation. Reviewer #1: All comments have been addressed Reviewer #2: All comments have been addressed ********** 2. Is the manuscript technically sound, and do the data support the conclusions? The manuscript must describe a technically sound piece of scientific research with data that supports the conclusions. Experiments must have been conducted rigorously, with appropriate controls, replication, and sample sizes. The conclusions must be drawn appropriately based on the data presented. Reviewer #1: (No Response) Reviewer #2: Yes ********** 3. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously? Reviewer #1: (No Response) Reviewer #2: Yes ********** 4. Have the authors made all data underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available? The PLOS Data policy requires authors to make all data underlying the findings described in their manuscript fully available without restriction, with rare exception (please refer to the Data Availability Statement in the manuscript PDF file). The data should be provided as part of the manuscript or its supporting information, or deposited to a public repository. For example, in addition to summary statistics, the data points behind means, medians and variance measures should be available. If there are restrictions on publicly sharing data—e.g. participant privacy or use of data from a third party—those must be specified. Reviewer #1: (No Response) Reviewer #2: Yes ********** 5. Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English? PLOS ONE does not copyedit accepted manuscripts, so the language in submitted articles must be clear, correct, and unambiguous. Any typographical or grammatical errors should be corrected at revision, so please note any specific errors here. Reviewer #1: (No Response) Reviewer #2: Yes ********** 6. Review Comments to the Author Please use the space provided to explain your answers to the questions above. You may also include additional comments for the author, including concerns about dual publication, research ethics, or publication ethics. (Please upload your review as an attachment if it exceeds 20,000 characters) Reviewer #1: (No Response) Reviewer #2: (No Response) ********** 7. PLOS authors have the option to publish the peer review history of their article (what does this mean?). If published, this will include your full peer review and any attached files. If you choose “no”, your identity will remain anonymous but your review may still be made public. Do you want your identity to be public for this peer review? For information about this choice, including consent withdrawal, please see our Privacy Policy. Reviewer #1: No Reviewer #2: Yes: Nina Lauharatanahirun |
| Formally Accepted |
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PONE-D-19-23100R1 Learning about the Ellsberg Paradox reduces, but does not abolish, ambiguity aversion Dear Dr. Jia: I am pleased to inform you that your manuscript has been deemed suitable for publication in PLOS ONE. Congratulations! Your manuscript is now with our production department. If your institution or institutions have a press office, please notify them about your upcoming paper at this point, to enable them to help maximize its impact. If they will be preparing press materials for this manuscript, please inform our press team within the next 48 hours. Your manuscript will remain under strict press embargo until 2 pm Eastern Time on the date of publication. For more information please contact onepress@plos.org. For any other questions or concerns, please email plosone@plos.org. Thank you for submitting your work to PLOS ONE. With kind regards, PLOS ONE Editorial Office Staff on behalf of Dr. Jason Anthony Aimone Academic Editor PLOS ONE |
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