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Fig 1.

Schematic of the study area.

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Table 1.

Data sources and specifications.

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Table 1 Expand

Table 2.

Classification of Scenario I and Scenario II in 2000, 2010, and 2020.

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Table 2 Expand

Table 3.

Classification of Scenario III、Scenario IV in 2000, 2010, and 2020.

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Table 3 Expand

Fig 2.

Research framework.

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Fig 3.

Correlation coefficients (a, b, c) of ESs in Henan Province from 2000 to 2020.

Statistical significance was denoted using an asterisk system (*, **) to represent FDR-adjusted significance levels, as detailed in the figure legend (e.g., *p < 0.05; ** p < 0.01).

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Fig 4.

Probability changes of various factors in Scenario I (scenario1, scenario3, scenario5, scenario7, scenario9) and Scenario II (scenario2, scenario4, scenario6, scenario8, scenario10) in 2000.

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Fig 5.

Probability changes of various factors in Scenario III (scenario1, scenario3, scenario5, scenario 7) and Scenario IV (scenario2, scenario4, scenario6, scenario8) in 2000.

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Fig 6.

Probability changes of various factors in Scenario I (scenario1, scenario3, scenario5) and Scenario II (scenario2, scenario4, scenario6) in 2010.

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Fig 7.

Probability changes of various factors in Scenario III (scenario1, scenario3, scenario5) and Scenario IV (scenario2, scenario4, scenario6) in 2010.

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Fig 8.

Probability changes of various factors in Scenario I (scenario1, scenario3, scenario5, scenario7) and Scenario II (scenario2, scenario4, scenario6, scenario8) in 2020.

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Fig 9.

Probability changes of various factors in Scenario III (scenario1, scenario3, scenario5, scenario7) and Scenario IV (scenario2, scenario4, scenario6, scenario8) in 2020.

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Fig 10.

SHAP dependence plots for the factors associated with ESs trade-offs and synergies in 2000.

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Fig 11.

SHAP dependence plots for the factors associated with ESs trade-offs and synergies in 2010.

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Fig 12.

SHAP dependence plots for the factors associated with ESs trade-offs and synergies in 2020.

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