Fig 1.
Spread of ASF in wild boar in South Korea from August 2019 until August 2022.
Coordinates correspond to the centroid of affected grid cells used for the final model. According to the date of the first case, green dots correspond to the spread of that season, while gray dots represent the previously affected areas.
Table 1.
Performance of the best model for each order polynomial trend-surface analysis (TSA).
Fig 2.
Predicted progress in trimesters of ASF cases in South Korea using a fourth-order polynomial trend-surface analysis.
The star marks the grid cell where the first ASF notification in wild boar was reported. Arrows show the direction of each grid cell centroid obtained from the vectors contributing to the slope of disease spread. White areas represent ASF-free administrative units in South Korea until August 2022. Administrative boundaries are republished from [27] under a CC BY 4.0 license.
Fig 3.
Best fitting model residuals (A), and histogram of best fitting model residual (B). Dots correspond to the centroid of the cell where ASF cases in wild boar were reported. The dashed line in the histogram corresponds with the mean value of residuals. Administrative boundaries are republished from [27] under a CC BY 4.0 license.
Fig 4.
Velocity analysis performed using the 1 km x 1 km grid and the actual date of infection.
(A) Mean and median velocities each season. The red dashed line corresponds with the mean value of velocities (24.70 km/month). (B) Velocity histogram for the ASF-affected grid cells. The black dashed line corresponds with the mean value of velocities. (C) Seasonal variations in velocity.
Table 2.
Mean and median ASF velocity with different velocity thresholds.