Fig 1.
Map of the environmentally heterogeneous study area, ranging from fully domesticated human settlements just outside the western border of the Ifakara-Lupiro-Mangula Wildlife Management Area (ILUMA WMA [66,67]) through to well conserved natural ecosystems within Nyerere National Park (NNP) to the east of it, displaying the distribution of suitable camping locations used as the sampling frame for all the surveys described in this report.
Each of the 40 camps detailed in S1 Table.1 in S1 Appendix are illustrated in the geographic context of the boundaries of the ILUMA WMA and NNP, with camp number 1 being the central main camp Msakamba [69]. Copyright © Esri. All rights reserved. Map layers were produced using base maps obtained from OpenStreetMap® under the Open Database License.
Fig 2.
Examples of animal prints that were recorded as detections during the radial surveys of human, livestock, wildlife activity and land use.
A: A collection of cattle hoofprints surrounding a pool. B: Hartebeest and a buffalo print in sand. C: Common duiker prints in sand. D: A hippo print on the riverbank.
Fig 3.
The proportion of habitats occupied by An. gambiae complex larvae for each survey conducted over four rounds plotted as a function of ecosystem integrity.
The estimated mean trend with 95% confidence intervals reflects the predicted values for each surveyed camp location based on a fitted GLMM that is identical to the multivariate model detailed in S10.2 in S10 Appendix, except that all fixed effects other than the subjective natural ecosystem integrity index (SNEII; S4 Appendix and [66,67]) were instead treated as random effects, so that the predictions reflect the absolute means rather than the means for the reference values of each variable.
Fig 4.
The number of An. arabiensis larvae per habitat plotted against the number of An. quadriannulatus larvae per habitat, as determined during the full fourth round of surveys.
Table 1.
Univariate and multivariate outputs of generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) for the effects of spatial and geographic attributes on the proportion of An. arabiensis rather than An. quadriannulatus. All model outputs were fitted to a binomial distribution with logit link function. A random effect that nested breeding site identification number within camp was included to account for variation between and covariance within larval populations. Statistically significant effects are highlighted in bold.
Fig 5.
The proportion of field-identified An. gambiae complex collected and preserved in situ in the fourth round that were identified as An. arabiensis rather than An. quadriannulatus by PCR [77] plotted against distance to the nearest boundary of Nyerere National Park (NNP), with locations outside the park indicated by negative values.
Symbol size indicates the number of specimens identified, collected and successfully amplified at that location, while colour indicates scores for the Subjective Natural Ecosystem Integrity Index (SNEII; S4 Appendix and [66,67]). The predicted mean values and their 95% confidence intervals for each surveyed camp location are respectively plotted as a black line and grey ribbon, both of which were calculated based on the estimated intercept and the fixed effects of distance and SNEII from the final multivariate model detailed in Table 1.
Fig 6.
Map of ILUMA WMA and NNP illustrating how the proportion of An. arabiensis versus An. quadriannulatus varies geographically with respect to distance inside the park and away from human settlements, as well as the subjective natural ecosystem integrity (SNEII; S4 Appendix and [66,67]) at each camp location (Fig 1).
This map was produced with QGIS® version 3.30.2 open-source software, using base maps obtained from OpenStreetMap® under the Open Database License.
Table 2.
Univariate and multivariate outputs of generalised linear mixed models (GLMMs) of the effects of recorded detections of individual animal species on the proportion of An. arabiensis rather than An. quadriannulatus. All models were fitted to a binomial distribution with logit link function to the dependent variable. A random effect comprised of breeding site identification number nested within camp number was included to account for variation between and covariance within larval populations at individual waterbodies. Statistically significant effects are highlighted in bold.
Fig 7.
Map of ILUMA WMA and NNP illustrating how the proportion of An. arabiensis versus An. quadriannulatus varies geographically with respect to the number of times that activities of cattle and/or humans were detected at each camp (Fig 1).
This map was produced with QGIS® version 3.30.2 open-source software, using base maps obtained from OpenStreetMap® under the Open Database License.
Fig 8.
Map of ILUMA WMA and NNP illustrating how the proportion of An. arabiensis versus An. quadriannulatus varies geographically with respect to the number of times that activities of impala were detected at each camp (Fig 1).
This map was produced with QGIS® version 3.30.2 open-source software, using base maps obtained from OpenStreetMap® under the Open Database License.
Fig 9.
Map of ILUMA WMA and NNP illustrating how the proportion of An. arabiensis versus An. quadriannulatus varied geographically with respect to the number of times activities of warthog and bushpig were detected at each camp (Fig 1).
This map was produced with QGIS® version 3.30.2 open source software, using base maps obtained from OpenStreetMap® under the Open Database License.
Fig 10.
The proportions of field-identified An. gambiae complex specimens collected and preserved in situ during the fourth survey round that were identified as An. arabiensis rather than An. quadriannulatus by PCR [77] plotted against distance to the nearest boundary of Nyerere National Park (NNP) and away from human settlements, with locations outside the park indicated by negative values.
Symbol colour indicates the number of impala detections, symbol size indicates the number of warthog detections and symbol shape indicates whether humans, cattle, both or neither were detected. The predicted mean values and their 95% confidence intervals for each surveyed camp location are respectively plotted as a black line and grey ribbon, both of which were calculated based on the total number of detections for cattle and humans, impala and warthog and the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) presented in Table 2.