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Fig 1.

Geographical location of the Kangding River Basin.

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Table 1.

Transfer cost matrix under four scenarios.

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Fig 2.

Research method framework.

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Table 2.

Soil and water conservation factors for different land use types.

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Table 3.

Soil erosion intensity table.

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Table 4.

Soil stability assessment parameters.

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Table 5.

Factor interaction types and judgment criteria.

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Fig 3.

Land use change map of the Kangding River Basin.

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Fig 4.

Map of land use change from 2000 to 2020 (showing o areas of land use type change).

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Fig 5.

Soil erosion modulus from 2000 to 2020.

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Fig 6.

Soil erosion modulus and soil erosion amount.

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Table 6.

Area and Proportion of different soil erosion intensity.

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Fig 7.

Soil erosion intensity class distribution. Soil erosion intensity was classified according to the Soil Erosion Classification and Grading Standard (SL190–2007), including slight (0–2), mild (2–25), moderate (25–50), strong (50–80), very strong (80–150), and severe (>150) erosion (t·hm ⁻ ²·a ⁻ ¹).

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Fig 8.

Soil stability grade distribution. Soil stability was classified into three levels based on the calculated stability index: low stability (<4), moderate stability (4–7), and high stability (>7).

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Table 7.

Single-factor detection results of soil erosion drivers in the Kangding River Basin.

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Fig 9.

Factor interaction relationship.

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Table 8.

R²-Based performance comparison of machine learning models for Soil Erosion Simulation.

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Fig 10.

SHAP summary plots for catboost model across five time periods.

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Fig 11.

SHAP value heatmaps of soil erosion driving factors across different periods.

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