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Fig 1.

Monthly Chilean exchange rate relative to US dollar. Jan 2001–April 2024.

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Fig 2.

Chilean exchange rate relative to US dollar and SPF forecasts. April 2012 – April 2024.

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Table 1.

RMSPE Comparison between DRW+ and DRW.

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Table 2.

RMSPE Comparison: RW+ vs RW.

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Table 3.

RMSPE Comparison: RW vs DRW. June 2018 – April 2024.

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Table 4.

RMSPE Comparison: RW+ vs DRW+June 2018 – April 2024.

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Table 5.

RMSPE Comparison: RW+ vs DRW. June 2018 – April 2024.

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Table 6.

Forecast accuracy of survey-based forecasts relative to the DRW+ at several forecasting horizons h (measured in months). April 2012 – April 2024 window.

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Table 7.

Forecast accuracy of survey-based forecasts relative to the DRW+ at several forecasting horizons h (measured in months). April 2012 – May 2018 window.

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Table 8.

Forecast accuracy of survey-based forecasts relative to the DRW+ at several forecasting horizons h (measured in months). June 2018 – April 2024 window.

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Table 9.

Forecast accuracy of survey-based forecasts relative to the RW+ at several forecasting horizons h (measured in months). June 2018 – April 2024 window.

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Table 10.

Mean Directional Accuracy of the SPF at several horizons. April 2012 – April 2024.

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Table 11.

Mean directional accuracy of the SPF at several horizons. April 2012 – May 2018.

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Table 12.

Mean directional accuracy of the SPF at several horizons. June 2018 – April 2024.

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Table 13.

Correlation between CLP+ and SPF at several horizons. April 2012 – April 2024 window.

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Table 15.

Correlation between CLP+ and SPF at several horizons. June 2018 – April 2024 window.

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Table 14.

Correlation between CLP+ and SPF at several horizons. April 2012 – May 2018 window.

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Table 16.

Correlation Differences: RW+ vs SPF at several horizons. June 2018 – April 2024 window.

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Table 17.

Bias in survey-based forecasts. April 2012 – April 2024 window.

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Table 18.

Bias in survey-based forecasts. April 2012 – May 2018 window.

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Table 19.

Bias in survey-based forecasts. June 2018 – April 2024 window.

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Table 20.

Correlation of survey-based forecasts with forecast errors. June 2018 – April 2024 window.

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Table 21.

Forecast accuracy of the Adjusted SPF relative to the SPF without adjustment. June 2018 – April 2024 window.

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Table 22.

Forecast accuracy of the Adjusted SPF relative to the RW+ . June 2018 – April 2024 window.

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Table 23.

Mean directional accuracy of the adjusted SPF. June 2018– April 2024.

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Table 24.

Forecast accuracy of the LASSO-Adjusted-SPF relative to the RW+. June 2018 – April 2024 window.

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Table 25.

Forecast accuracy of the Elastic Net-Adjusted-SPF relative to the SPF without adjustment. June 2018 – April 2024 window.

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Table 26.

Forecast accuracy of the Elastic Net-Adjusted-SPF relative to the RW+ . June 2018 – April 2024 window.

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