Fig 1.
Schematic of the SCTLD prevalence changes through time.
A) Differentiating among the three theoretical responses of coral species susceptibility to SCTLD: high (red), intermediate (yellow) and low (blue). Black arrows mark the epizootic start of each species based on the observations of FDEP [30]. From this differential epizootic start a prevalence peak is inferred at different times. Dashed lines show three hypothetical sampling periods (S1, S2 & S3) that produce the different prevalence estimates shown in B). B) Bars indicate that species prevalence will vary depending on the sampling time.
Table 1.
Epizootic parameters used to assess species susceptibility to SCTLD.
Fig 2.
Epi-curves and daily prevalence curves by species through the epizootic.
Incidence is presented weekly in colored bars (showing their expected susceptibility) with values on the primary axis. Sample sizes (N) per species are reported in Table 1. Red vertical lines mark the time of the epizootic peak for each species. Dotted black lines show the daily prevalence curve. Dashed black lines show the cumulative mortality percentage. Blue continuous lines show the proportion of the population at risk. These three proportions have scale on the secondary axis. Climbs on population at risk curves are due to recoveries while decreases after epi-curves’ end are due to adjustments on population at risk proportion by censoring.
Fig 3.
A) All susceptible species contrasted by susceptibility groups. All groups started with signs within the first month. Mean weekly temperature (°C) is marked by a solid black line (scale on the secondary axe). B-D) Epi-curves by susceptibility group: B) high, C) intermediate, and D) low susceptibility. Weekly incidence and time in days are in the Y and X axis, respectively. Species in AGRRA code. Red dashed lines mark the epizootic peak.
Fig 4.
Comparison of the density distributions of daily incidence and mortality during the SCTLD epizootic.
A) Both sites; B) Picudas site; and C) Bocana site. Every site presents around five minor waves of incidence (blue) preceded each by a peak of mortality (red), each signaled by a pair of arrows in blue and red, respectively.
Fig 5.
Kaplan-Meyer Risk and Survival curves for the susceptibility species groups.
A) Risk curve showing the probability of disease over time. B) Survival probabilities for all individuals and C) Survival only of those with SCTLD. Dashed lines mark when 50% experienced the event. Shaded ribbons represent 95% confidence intervals. P-values from log-rank tests: χ² = 263, 297, and 63.1, respectively. Data is shown up to day 600 since outbreak onset. In B and C, decreases in survival probabilities occurred beyond day 600 are depicted as vertically dashed lines. These lines do not indicate sudden drops at that point but summarize posterior mortality up to 2.8 years.
Fig 6.
Principal component analysis (PCA) of ten SCTLD epizootic indicators across coral species.
Species are grouped into colored polygons based on their expected susceptibility: red (High), yellow (Intermediate), and blue (Low). Roman numerals indicate exploratory susceptibility levels derived from the visual distribution of species in PCA space. Higher susceptibility is positioned towards the right along PC1. Species names in AGRRA code.