Table 1.
Baseline characteristics of pancreatic cancer incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs in China, Korea, Japan, and the USA (1990–2021).
Fig 1.
Trends in Prevalence and Incidence Rates of Pancreatic Cancer by Gender and Region (1990–2021).
(A) Global trends: Both prevalence and incidence have steadily increased over time, with men showing higher age-standardized rates (ASRs) than women. (B) China: A rising trend in both prevalence and incidence is observed, with men showing substantially higher rates throughout the study period. (C) USA: Prevalence and incidence have also increased notably, with a more pronounced rise among men, although the gender gap is smaller compared to China. (D) Korea: Prevalence rates have increased, but incidence remains relatively stable, with a slight male predominance. (E) Japan: Prevalence and incidence continue to rise for both genders, with men consistently having higher rates compared to women.
Fig 2.
Age and Gender Distribution of Pancreatic Cancer Prevalence and Incidence in China (1990–2021).
(A) Prevalence by age and gender: The number of prevalent cases is higher in males across all age groups, with significant increases among those aged 75 and older. (B) Rate of prevalence by age group: Prevalence rates rise steadily with age, with males consistently having higher rates than females, particularly in older age groups. (C) Incidence by age and gender: The number of new pancreatic cancer cases per age group is higher in males, with a marked increase in older individuals (65 + years). (D) Rate of incidence by age group: Incidence rates show similar trends, increasing significantly with age and with males being disproportionately affected.
Fig 3.
Age and Gender Distribution of Pancreatic Cancer Prevalence and Incidence in the USA (1990–2021).
(A) Prevalence by age and gender: Males have a higher prevalence of pancreatic cancer compared to females, especially in the older age groups (70 + years). (B) Rate of prevalence by age group: The prevalence rate increases sharply with age for both genders, with men consistently showing higher values. (C) Incidence by age and gender: Males show higher numbers of new cases, particularly among individuals over 70 years. (D) Rate of incidence by age group: Incidence rates escalate with age, with men showing higher rates across most age groups.
Fig 4.
Age and Gender Distribution of Pancreatic Cancer Prevalence and Incidence in Japan (1990–2021).
(A) Prevalence by age and gender: Japan has the highest prevalence in males aged 75 and older, while females show lower numbers. (B) Rate of prevalence by age group: The rate increases significantly after 65 years, with a higher prevalence in males compared to females. (C) Incidence by age and gender: Similar to prevalence, incidence is higher in males, particularly among the elderly. (D) Rate of incidence by age group: There is a sharp rise in incidence with age, with males showing higher rates, particularly beyond 70 years.
Fig 5.
Age and Gender Distribution of Pancreatic Cancer Prevalence and Incidence in Korea (1990–2021).
(A) Prevalence by age and gender: Males consistently show higher prevalence rates compared to females, particularly in the age group 70-79 years. (B) Rate of prevalence by age group: Prevalence rates increase steadily with age, with higher rates observed in males. (C) Incidence by age and gender: The incidence of pancreatic cancer is also higher in males, with increasing trends noted among older individuals. (D) Rate of incidence by age group: Incidence rates follow a similar age-dependent increase, with a higher burden observed in males.
Fig 6.
Global Age and Gender Distribution of Pancreatic Cancer Prevalence and Incidence (1990–2021).
(A) Prevalence by age and gender: Globally, males have a higher prevalence of pancreatic cancer, particularly in individuals aged 65 and older. (B) Rate of prevalence by age group: The rate of prevalence escalates with age, with males consistently having higher rates across all age groups. (C) Incidence by age and gender: The global incidence of pancreatic cancer is higher in males, with sharp increases noted after age 65. (D) Rate of incidence by age group: Incidence rates increase with age, with the highest rates observed among individuals over 75 years.
Fig 7.
Joinpoint Regression Analysis of Age-Standardized Pancreatic Cancer Death Rates (1990–2021).
(A) Global trends: Mortality rates have increased for both males and females, with a steeper rise among males, particularly from 1993 to 2019. (B) China: A significant increase in mortality rates is observed, particularly among males, starting from 2015. (C) USA: Mortality rates for males show a steady rise, while females have experienced a slower increase. (D) Japan: Mortality rates showed a slight decline initially, but began to increase significantly after 2000, particularly among males, with a more pronounced rise after 2006.(E) Korea: A notable decline in mortality rates has been observed in recent years, particularly after 2015, suggesting improvements in healthcare interventions.
Fig 8.
Joinpoint Regression Analysis of Age-Standardized Pancreatic Cancer Incidence Rates (1990–2021).
(A) Global trends: The incidence of pancreatic cancer has been steadily increasing for both genders, with males showing a steeper rise. (B) China: A steep increase in incidence is noted among males, with a slower increase for females. (C) USA: Both males and females show a steady rise in incidence, with males showing higher rates. (D) Japan: The incidence rate remained relatively stable in the early years of the study period, but a noticeable increase occurred from the mid-2000s, especially in males, with a more pronounced rise post-2010. (E) Korea: The incidence rate for males increased steadily from 1990 to 1994, peaked around 1994, and then declined until 2003. From 2003 to 2011, the rate remained relatively stable, entering a plateau phase, followed by a decline after 2011. For females, the incidence rate increased from 1990 to 1999, peaked around 1999, and then declined until 2002, with a modest increase noted thereafter.
Fig 9.
Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Pancreatic Cancer Mortality (1990–2021).
(A) Longitudinal age curve: Mortality rates increase exponentially with age, particularly after age 60, in all regions. (B) Period effects: A marked rise in relative risk is observed after 2000, particularly in China and globally. (C) Cohort effects: More recent birth cohorts (post-1950) show an increased risk of pancreatic cancer, particularly in China. (D) Local drifts with net drift: Mortality rates rise consistently with age, with the steepest increases in the oldest age groups (75+), especially in China.
Fig 10.
Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Pancreatic Cancer Incidence (1990–2021).
This figure presents the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis of pancreatic cancer incidence trends in the USA, China, Japan, Korea, and globally. (A) Longitudinal age curve: Incidence rates increase sharply with age, particularly after age 65, in all regions. The steepest rise is observed in Japan and the USA. (B) Period effects: Period rate ratios (RR) indicate an increased risk for pancreatic cancer incidence after 2000, with China showing the highest increase. (C) Cohort effects: The cohort risk ratio shows a consistent increase in incidence risk for more recent birth cohorts (post-1950), especially in China and globally. (D) Local drifts with net drift: Local drift analysis demonstrates a steady increase in incidence across all age groups, with older populations (65+) showing the most significant rise.
Fig 11.
Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Pancreatic Cancer Prevalence (1990–2021).
This figure illustrates APC analysis for pancreatic cancer prevalence across different regions, including the USA, China, Japan, Korea, and globally. (A) Longitudinal age curve: Prevalence rates increase with age, particularly among individuals aged 65 years and older, in all regions. (B) Period effects: Period rate ratios indicate an upward trend in pancreatic cancer prevalence risk after the year 2000, especially in China and globally. (C) Cohort effects: Prevalence risk increases with newer birth cohorts, with a noticeable rise in cohort risk ratio for populations born after 1950. (D) Local drifts with net drift: Local drifts indicate a steady rise in prevalence, with a pronounced effect among older individuals, highlighting the age-related burden of pancreatic cancer.
Fig 12.
Predicted Trends in Age-Standardized Incidence Rates (ASIR) of Pancreatic Cancer (2020–2030).
This figure depicts the projected age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) for pancreatic cancer from 2020 to 2030 in the USA, Japan, China, Korea, and globally. (A-E) Each panel represents a different region (USA, Japan, China, Korea, and global data). Predictions indicate an increase in ASIR for both sexes in most regions, particularly Japan and the USA, with males consistently having higher predicted rates than females. In Korea, ASIR is expected to remain relatively stable, while China and global rates are projected to increase moderately.
Fig 13.
Predicted Trends in Age-Standardized Mortality Rates (ASMR) of Pancreatic Cancer (2020–2030).
This figure illustrates predicted age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) of pancreatic cancer across five regions for the period 2020–2030. (A-E) Each panel shows ASMR predictions for the USA, Japan, China, Korea, and globally. Japan and the USA are projected to exhibit the highest mortality rates, particularly for males. In contrast, Korea is expected to show stable or declining trends in ASMR, while China and global mortality rates are likely to increase, highlighting the public health challenge posed by pancreatic cancer.
Fig 14.
Predicted Trends in Age-Standardized Prevalence Rates (ASPR) of Pancreatic Cancer (2020–2030).
This figure presents predicted trends for age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) of pancreatic cancer from 2020 to 2030 across the USA, Japan, China, Korea, and globally. (A-E) The highest prevalence is projected for Japan and the USA, with ASPR expected to rise significantly for males. China and Korea are predicted to show more stable trends, while global prevalence is anticipated to increase moderately, underscoring the need for targeted prevention strategies.
Fig 15.
Predicted Trends in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) Due to Pancreatic Cancer (2020–2030).
This figure shows the predicted trends in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) due to pancreatic cancer from 2020 to 2030 in the USA, Japan, China, Korea, and globally. (A-E) DALYs are projected to increase most significantly in Japan and the USA, reflecting the growing burden of pancreatic cancer, particularly among males. Conversely, Korea’s DALYs are expected to decline, suggesting successful interventions. China’s DALYs are projected to continue rising, emphasizing the need for improved healthcare resources and early detection methods. Global DALYs indicate a steady increase, with males predicted to bear a larger burden compared to females.