Fig 1.
Schematic representation of AquaX Distance-3 Ocean System (D3OS) classification.
Table 1.
List of the Bio-Oracle (v3.0) environmental variables used for modelling fish species.
Table 2.
Binning of the global set of environmental variables.
Fig 2.
Maps of the big eye tuna, Thunnus obesus (Lowe, 1839), following the AquaMaps and AquaX methodology.
A) Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) for the most recent version of AquaMaps. B) HSI for the AquaX ensemble mean. C) Committee Average (CA) for the AquaX Ensemble model. A value of 1 indicates that all the runs agree on the presence (based on binned HSI) of the species while 0 all runs agree that the species is absent. D) AquaX Ensemble Model Coefficient of Variation (EMcv). A higher EMcv value indicates greater disagreement among models, while a lower value means more consistency. E) Clamping mask showing the number of environmental variables whose value is outside the range of values used to calibrate the models. Maps in the second column show a zoomed-in section of the corresponding maps in the first column (dashed rectangle). Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com.
Fig 3.
Distribution and habitat suitability of sand seatrout (Cynoscion arenarius, Ginsburg 1930).
(A) IUCN expert-defined range map. (B) Biogeographical (blue) and potential ranges (purple) from AquaX. (C) Habitat Suitability Index (HSI). (D) Zoomed-in portion of (C) highlighting the northern range of the species. (E) Change in HSI between future projections (SSP5–8.5, 2050–2060) and present conditions (2000–2010). (F) Zoomed-in portion of (E) highlighting the northern range of the species. Black dots are occurrence points. Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com.
Fig 4.
Pattern of invasion (inv) and extinction (ext) of sand seatrout, Cynoscion arenarius (Ginsburg, 1930), for the middle (2050s) and end (2090s) of the century.
Map of invasion (species appears in areas where it was previously absent) and extinction (species disappears from the areas where it was previously present) of sand trout (and a zoomed in portion of the map shown in dashed line) under three climate change scenarios (A) SSP1–2.6 (B) SSP2–4.5 (C) SSP5–8.5. Solid black line delineates the boundary of the IUCN expert range map. Bar plots showing the percent lost or gained of the modelled area (potential range from Fig 3B; total area of 3,988,793 km2) for the middle and end of the century under three climate change scenarios: (D) SSP1–2.6 (E) SSP2–4.5 (F) SSP5–8.5. Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com.
Fig 5.
Maps of coral diversity (normalized) around the Great Barrier Reef (GBR).
A) Distribution of warm-water coral reefs around the GBR region from UNEP-WCMC (1 km resolution). B) normalized coral species richness (SR) map from Jenkins & Van Houtan (2016, 100 km resolution). C) normalized SR map produced using AquaX (5 km resolution). D) Variagram for two coral datasets (global). AquaX dataset was resampled using maximum value to the same resolution of Jenkins & Van Houtan. E) simple linear regression between resampled coral SR (global) from AquaX and Jenkins & Van Houtan. Black line is linear regression. F) Map of residuals of linear regression. Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com.
Fig 6.
Range maps and occurrences data of Slinger seabream, Chrysoblephus puniceus (Gilchrist & Thompson, 1908).
Erroneous (flagged) occurrences are marked by red, verified (valid) occurrence points are marked in blue, records with no flags (unflagged) are marked as yellow. A) raw occurrence data and IUCN ERM (shaded in blue shade). B) verified occurrence points and biogeographical range (BR) map (in blue shade) produced from AquaX methodology. C) verified occurrence points and BR map (in blue shade) produced from AquaX methodology assuming no ERM available. Numbers in the bottom left corner of the maps are the total area of the range maps in square kilometers. Distribution of flags with the distance from D) ERM, E) BR built based on ERM, and F) BR built without ERM. Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com.
Fig 7.
Example of selection of pseudo-absences for demersal (first column) and pelagic (second column) species.
A) Observed thermal niche. Vertical lines show locations of presences (green) and pseudo-absences (orange); B) Density distribution of presences; C) density distribution of pseudo-absences; D) geographic distribution of occurrence and pseudo-absences; E) habitat suitability index for current (2000-2010) conditions. Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com.