Fig 1.
Common presentation of model outcomes over time.
This figure illustrates a common presentation of model outputs. The mean (solid line) with 95% credible intervals (shading) of 1,727 simulations of hospital demand is displayed for two policy alternatives: Policy A – close schools and Policy B – mandatory masking. (A) shows the overlapping distributions of hospital demand, while (B) shows the median hospital demand for each policy.
Table 1.
Common presentation of model output measures.
Table 2.
Decision Uncertainty Toolkit outputs: Risk measure.
Fig 2.
Decision Uncertainty Toolkit: Risk measure and time-outcome fan plots.
This figure presents model outputs using the Decision Uncertainty Toolkit, including the time-outcome fan plots. They display the mean (solid line) with 50% credible intervals (dark shading) and 95% credible intervals (light shading) of 1,727 simulations. The decision threshold (or policy objective) is shown with a dashed red line.
Fig 3.
Decision Uncertainty Toolkit outputs: Probability density and raincloud plots.
This figure presents model outputs using the Decision Uncertainty Toolkit. Probability density plots of the peak hospital demand are shown in (A) with the shaded area indicating the downside risk. Note the x-axis limits are different for the Baseline and Policy A and B. A raincloud plot showing the probability densities of peak hospital demand, alongside corresponding box plots indicating the mean and 50th percentile range, for each scenario is given in (A). The decision threshold (or policy objective) is indicated using a dashed red line in all figures.
Fig 4.
Decision Uncertainty Toolkit outputs: Temporal probability density plots.
This figure presents the model outputs using the temporal probability density plots from the Decision Uncertainty Toolkit for the Baseline and Policy A and B. The decision threshold (or policy objective) is shown with a dashed red line.