Fig 1.
Largest religion in each county by percentage of adherents according to the PRRI.
We construct the Confessional Adjacency matrix according to this data, by defining adjacency in terms of a shared dominant religious congregation.
Fig 2.
Largest religion in each county by percentage of adherents according to the PRRI.
We construct the First Religion Confessional Adjacency matrix according to this data, by defining adjacency between counties if they share the same religion.
Fig 3.
Second largest religion in each county by percentage of adherents according to the PRRI.
We construct the Second Religion Confessional Adjacency matrix according to this data, by defining adjacency between counties if they share the same religion.
Fig 4.
Third largest religion in each county by percentage of adherents according to the PRRI.
We construct the Third Religion Confessional Adjacency matrix according to this data, by defining adjacency between counties if they share the same religion.
Fig 5.
Fourth largest religion in each county by percentage of adherents according to the PRRI.
We construct the Fourth Religion Confessional Adjacency matrix according to this data, by defining adjacency between counties if they share the same religion.
Fig 6.
Median household income by county according to data from the SAIPE.
We construct the Median Household Income Adjacency matrix according to this data, by defining adjacency between counties if they belong to the same income bracket.
Fig 7.
Urbanization level by county according to the NCHS classification scheme.
We construct the Urbanization Level adjacency matrix according to this data, by defining adjacency between counties if they share the same urbanization level.
Table 1.
Moran’s I for 2016 Trump/Clinton vote share when taking into account Geographic, Confessional (1st (CHR), 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th majority religion), Median Household Income and Urbanization Level Adjacency.
First Religion (CHR) refers to the majority religion when grouping together all White Christian groups (see 1)
Table 2.
Moran’s I for 2020 Trump/Biden vote share when taking into account Geographic, Confessional (1st (CHR), 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th majority religion), Median Household Income and Urbanization Level Adjacency.
First Religion (CHR) refers to the majority religion when grouping together all White Christian groups (see 1)
Table 3.
Moran’s I for 2024 Trump/Harris vote share when taking into account Geographic, Confessional (1st (CHR), 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th majority religion), Median Household Income and Urbanization Level Adjacency.
First Religion (CHR) refers to the majority religion when grouping together all White Christian groups (see 1)
Fig 8.
Moran’s I for Republican share of total votes across US presidential elections, under different adjacency frameworks: Geographical, First Religion (CHR), First Religion, Second Religion, Third Religion, Fourth Religion, Median Income, Urbanization Level.
Time variance is minimal, order among adjacency types is preserved.
Fig 9.
Moran’s I for Democratic share of total votes across US presidential elections, under different adjacency frameworks: Geographical, First Religion (CHR), First Religion, Second Religion, Third Religion, Fourth Religion, Median Income, Urbanization Level.
Time variance is minimal, order among adjacency types is preserved.