Fig 1.
A map of the location of provinces in China.
Color-coded regions are cases of scrub typhus in the top 8 provinces, China, 2006–2018 (Dark colors indicate a high number of scrub typhus cases and light colors indicate a low number of scrub typhus cases). This map was created by ArcGIS software (version 10.6, ESRI Inc.; Redlands, CA, USA). Homepage of ArcGIS software was https://www.esri.com/.
Table 1.
Epidemiologic features of scrub typhus cases in China, 2006 −2018.
Table 2.
Reported cases and annual average incidence of scrub typhus in 31 provinces, China, 2006–2018.
Table 3.
Sex, age and geographic area characteristics description of scrub typhus cases in China, 2006 −2018.
Fig 2.
Sequence map of monthly number of scrub typhus cases in China from 2006 to 2018.
Fig 3.
Sequence map of monthly number of scrub typhus cases after first-order seasonal difference with one-period of 12 in China from 2006 to 2018.
Table 4.
Goodness of fits for the SARIMA models corresponding to different choices of p, q and P, Q.
Fig 4.
Plot of autocorrelation function (ACF) after a first-order seasonal difference.
Fig 5.
Plot of partial autocorrelation function (PACF) after a first-order seasonal difference.
Fig 6.
Autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) of the residuals series of the SARIMA (1, 0, 2) (1, 1, 1)12 model.
Table 5.
Comparison of observed number of scrub typhus cases and corresponding out-of-sample predicted values from January to December in 2019 by the SARIMA (1, 0, 2) (1, 1, 1) 12 model.
Fig 7.
SARIMA (1, 0, 2) (1, 1, 1)12 model fitting, verification and forecasting of scrub typhus in China from January 2006 to December 2018 (UCL, upper confidence limit; LCL, low confidence limit).