Table 1.
Evolution of data availability, reliability, and relevance for the pasteurized milk consumption QRA from version 1.0 (April) to updated versions in May to July 2024.
Table 2.
Predicted risk of illness for raw milk and pasteurized milk scenarios (Version 1.3).
Fig 1.
Predicted number of cases per year for increasing pasteurization efficacies for each version of the QRA.
In the earlier v1.1 with low amount of data, for pasteurization efficacies of 3 log10 and 3 to 4 log10 reduction, the predicted number of cases per year was 376.0 (uncertainty range: 69.4 to 3321.5) and 142.4 (uncertainty range: 25.6 to 1244.7), respectively.
Table 3.
Top-down approach: Predicted risk for raw milk and pasteurized milk scenarios as minimal average risk (95% CI) per million servings of milk that should lead to at least one observed case with a probability >0.95.
Fig 2.
Minimal average risk per serving of pasteurized milk that would lead to a 95% chance of having observed at least one case, as a function of the number of days of the presence of H5N1 in milk (H5-like virus severity, hospital settings estimates).
Fig 3.
Minimal average risk per serving of raw milk that would lead to a 95% chance of having observed at least one case, as a function of the number of days of the presence of H5N1 in milk (H5-like virus severity, hospital settings estimates).