Fig 1.
Geographic location of research area ((a). Geographic location of YRD (Basemap Sources:https://www.tianditu.gov.cn/, Revision No.:GS(2024)0650); (b). The elevation of the target area).
Fig 2.
Details regarding the data utilized.
Table 1.
Carbon intensity data for YRD region Unit:kg/m2.
Table 2.
Neighborhood weights for different land use types simulated by PLUS model.
Table 3.
Transfer cost matrix of each land use type under different development scenarios.
Fig 3.
Flowchart of methodology in our study.
Fig 4.
Categorization of land use (1-cropland, 2-woodland, 3-grassland, 4-watershed, 5-developed land, 6-unused land).
Table 4.
Attitude of land use in YRD region.
Fig 5.
Drivers of urban sprawl in YRD region.
Fig 6.
Contribution of drivers.
Fig 7.
Comparison of land use simulation results and actual land use in YRD in 2020 (a). Simulated land use map of YRD region in 2020; (b) Actual land use map of YRD region in 2020.
Fig 8.
Land-use transfer Sankey diagram.
Table 5.
Comparison of land use prediction accuracy in 2020.
Table 6.
Area of each category in YRD region Unit:km2.
Fig 9.
Land use map for 2030 under various scenarios.
Fig 10.
Land use downtrend (left) uptrend (right) in YRD region (0-unchanged).
Table 7.
Category area for various scenarios within YRD region for the year 2030 Unit:km2.
Fig 11.
Carbon stocks in different land types under different scenarios.
Fig 12.
Carbon stocks in YRD region under different scenarios.
Fig 13.
Carbon stocks in various land use types in YRD region, 2000–2030.