Fig 1.
Illustration of the microsimulation model.
Fig 2.
Impact of changing patterns of alcohol-consumption observed during the Covid-19 pandemic on cumulative incidence of alcohol-related disease if maintained over short-, medium- or long-term, in England between 2022 and 2035.
‘Short-term’ scenario assumes the alcohol consumption patterns of 2020 and 2021 remained throughout 2022, before returning to pre-pandemic levels at the start of 2023. ‘Medium-term’ scenario, assumes the alcohol consumption patterns of 2020 and 2021 remain until the end of 2024, before returning to pre-pandemic levels at the beginning of 2025. ‘Long-term’ scenario, in which the alcohol consumption patterns of 2020 and 2021 remain indefinitely (from 2022 until the end of the microsimulation in 2035).
Fig 3.
Impact of changing patterns of alcohol-consumption observed during the Covid-19 pandemic on cumulative associated mortality if maintained over short-, medium- or long-term, in England between 2022 and 2035.
‘Short-term’, ‘medium-term’ and ‘long-term’ scenarios are defined as above.
Table 1.
Excess cumulative incidence of diseases projected in the ABC1 and C2DE population, per 100,000, by the year of reversion to pre-COVID-19 drinking patterns and by 2035.
Fig 4.
Number of excess premature deaths in the ABC1 and C2DE populations, between 2022 and 2035, under the long-term scenario compared to the baseline scenario.
The ‘long-term’ scenario models a scenario in which the post-COVID-19 alcohol consumption patterns of 2020 and 2021 remain indefinitely (from 2022 until the end of the microsimulation in 2035).
Fig 5.
Impact of changing patterns of alcohol-consumption observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, on cumulative direct costs of treating alcohol-related disease, in England, between 2022 and 2035.
All results are presented in 2021 GBP (£). Additional costs are reflective of the additional prevalence of disease in any given year.