Fig 1.
Schematic of the model for transmission of SARS-Cov2 infection.
α, β, γ1, γ2, δ, ε, θ are rates of death, transmission, transfer from exposed to asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic, transfer from pre-symptomatic to symptomatic, recovery from asymptomatic or symptomatic, quarantine for symptomatic, and quarantine for pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic. Solid line shows transition from a compartment to the next compartment, dotted line shows transition from a compartment to the next compartment for quarantined population, and dashed line shows infection from symptomatic, pre-symptomatic, or asymptomatic population to susceptible population.
Table 1.
Estimated basic model parameters and covariates, effect of vaccination, and difference among viral variants.
Fig 2.
Reported and predicted weekly confirmed cases globally and each region.
Gray bar: reported weekly confirmed cases. Blue line: predicted weekly confirmed cases. The population in each region was normalized to 108 in the analysis.
Fig 3.
Reported and predicted weekly confirmed deaths globally and each region.
Gray bar: reported weekly confirmed deaths. Red line: predicted weekly confirmed deaths. The population in each region was normalized to 108 in the analysis.
Fig 4.
Reported and predicted weekly confirmed cases.
Gray bar: reported weekly confirmed cases. Blue line: predicted weekly confirmed cases. The population in each country was normalized to 108 in the analysis. Representative countries are shown. S2 Fig shows the results for all countries.
Fig 5.
Reported and predicted weekly confirmed deaths.
Gray bar: reported weekly confirmed deaths. Red line: predicted weekly confirmed deaths. The population in each country was normalized to 108 in the analysis. Representative countries are shown. S3 Fig shows the results for all countries.
Fig 6.
Reported and predicted weekly total deaths.
Total death is a sum of COVID-19 related confirmed death, COVID-19 related unconfirmed death, and death from other reasons. Gray bar: reported weekly total deaths. Red line: predicted weekly total deaths. Green line and blue line: mean and its 90% confidence intervals of expected death from other reasons. The population in each country was normalized to 108 in the analysis. Representative countries are shown. S4 Fig shows the results for all countries.
Fig 7.
World maps of the estimated rate of transmission (β) and death rate.
A: β for countries with excess death data. B: β for countries without excess death data. C: death rate for countries with excess death data. D: death rate for countries without excess death data.
Fig 8.
A: Estimated maximum lockdown effect (%) by country. B: Estimated lockdown effect profile by country.
Fig 9.
Time-course of estimated inter-occasion variability for β in each region.
Black line: locally estimated scatterplot smoothing line.
Fig 10.
Density plots of estimated rate of transmission and death rate by variant.
A: estimated odds ratio of rate of transmission by variant to wild-type variant. B: estimated odds ratio of death rate by variant to wild-type variant.
Fig 11.
Density plots of estimated odds ratio of vaccination effect on death rate.