Fig 1.
The map shows the location, livelihood zones (LHZs), and enumeration areas (EAs) of Tigray. The LHZ is a spatial classification based on the dominant livelihood activities and agro-ecological conditions [27]. The EA is the primary sampling (smallest geographic) unit, used by the Central Statistics Agency (CSA) of Ethiopia for survey sampling and data availability [28–30]. Source: Author’s own work using ArcGIS software and spatial data on livelihood zones from Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) [https://fews.net] [27] and on Enumeration Area (EA) from CSA of Ethiopia [28].
Table 1.
Summary of land use land cover categories and descriptions.
Table 2.
Descriptive statistics for discrete and continuous descriptors by panel rounds and pooled.
Table 3.
Correlation matrix of residuals of land use equations: After mixed model estimation.
Table 4.
Mixed-effects model for land use share equations.
Fig 2.
Persistence and land cover trend change by LULC category in Tigray and its main LHZs during 1986 to 2016.
(a) Trend change for pasture (b) Trend change for other land covers (c) Trend change for forest (d) Trend change for bare land (e) Trend change for cropland (f) Persistence of land cover categories. ALL, Adiyabo Lowland; CMC, Central Mixed Crop; Enderta Dry Midland; EPL, Eastern Plateau; HSS, Humera Sesame and Sorghum; WCT, West Central Teff; OTH, other land uses; TIG, Tigray. Source: Author’s own work using ArcGIS and LandSat imagery.
Fig 3.
Percentage net change, swamp change and total change of LULC category in Tigray and its main LHZs during 1986 to 2016.
(a) for pasture (b) for other land covers (c) for forest (d) for bare land (e) for crop land. Net percentage changes below the horizontal axis are net loss and above the vertical axis are net gain. ALL, Adiyabo Lowland; CMC, Central Mixed Crop; Enderta Dry Midland; EPL, Eastern Plateau; HSS, Humera Sesame and Sorghum; WCT, West Central Teff; OTH, other land uses; TIG, Tigray. Values at the top of each bar are total change which is the sum of swamp change and absolute value of net change. Source: Author’s own work using ArcGIS and LandSat imagery.
Table 5.
Persistence indices for each LULC categories in Tigray and its main LHZs.
Fig 4.
Transition map of LULC categories in Tigray and its main LHZs from 1986 to 2016.
This shows systematic and random transitions and key signals of change. ALL, Adiyabo Lowland; CMC, Central Mixed Crop; Enderta Dry Midland; EPL, Eastern Plateau; HSS, Humera Sesame and Sorghum; WCT, West Central Teff; OTH, other land covers; TIG, Tigray. Fr, Forest; Pr, Pasture; Cr, Cropland; Bl, Bare land; and Ou, Other land covers. (a_1) Transitions based on losses for Tigray. (a_2) Transitions based on gains for Tigray. (b_1) to (g_1) Transitions based on losses for each LHZ, ordered as ALL, CMC, EDM, EPL, HSS, WCT and OTH. (b_2) to (g_2) Transitions based on gains for each LHZ, ordered as ALL, CMC, EDM, EPL, HSS, WCT and OTH. Source: Author’s own work using ArcGIS and LandSat imagery.
Table 6.
Key signals of change by LHZ based on most significant systematic transitions.