Table 1.
Georeferenced occurrences for the five Thamnophis gartersnake species recorded in Arizona through 31 December 2021.
Data sources include museum and biodiversity repositories, iNaturalist, agency reports, and field projects. Data was manually inspected for duplicates, erroneous records, and location accuracy (≤0.5 km).
Fig 1.
Distribution of Thamnophis gartersnake occurrences in Arizona, 1980–2021.
Fig 2.
Predictor importance in species distribution models of environmental suitability for Thamnophis gartersnakes in Arizona, 1980–2021.
Variable importance scores range between 0 and 1 per species; column height reflects cumulative influence across species. Bioclimatic predictors are described in Table 2.
Table 2.
Environmental variables used in ensemble species distribution modeling for Thamnophis gartersnakes in Arizona, 1980–2021.
Mean rank is the mean variable importance score rank (out of 7) among five species, Thamnophis cyrtopsis, T. elegans, T. eques, T. marcianus, T. rufipunctatus; lower mean rank scores equal greater importance.
Fig 3.
Estimated future changes in suitable environmental range for Thamnophis gartersnakes in Arizona.
Data are derived from the means of weighted-mean ensemble models of three global climate models (GCM), two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP), and two future time period scenarios per species. Bar plots depict mean change plus standard error among GCMs from baseline (0, i.e., present distributional range, 1980–2021). Positive values reflect net increases whereas negative values estimate net reductions.
Fig 4.
a–t. Projected change in range sizes for Thamnophis gartersnakes in Arizona. Data are modeled from weighted-means ensemble models generated from the MRI-ESM2-0 global climate model. Data columns represent near future 2050 (i.e., 2041–2060 median) and distant future 2090 (i.e., 2081–2100 median) projections under shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) that represent most optimistic (SSP126) and pessimistic (SSP585, i.e., status quo) emissions-limiting models. Individual map panels for species (a–t) are shown in S4 Fig.