Table 1.
Approximations of the log-likelihood for each of the three components and their alternative Poisson models.
Fig 1.
The G-R relation distribution (FMD) of the earthquake catalog in Xinjiang region during 2009-2023, with triangles and circles representing non-cumulative and cumulative frequency distributions.
Table 2.
LGCP model: Range and standard deviation parameter fitting results for intercept term and random field.
Table 3.
LGCP model: Spatial random field posterior mean fitting results of 10 regions in Xinjiang.
Table 4.
Summary information on the occurrence of mainshocks of selected earthquake sequences in five regions of Xinjiang.
Table 5.
The fitting values and 95% confidence interval results of the ETAS model after the mainshock of the selected earthquake sequences in five regions.
Fig 2.
Variation of ETAS model parameters with cutoff time.
Fig 3.
Cumulative number of earthquakes for the Ms6.0 earthquake sequence in the Hotan region versus using Inlabru and MCMC to realize the ETAS model fitting curve comparison.
Fig 4.
Time-magnitude plots of earthquake sequences generated by the ETAS model and actual earthquake sequences are fitted based on the INLAbru, MCMC method.
Fig 5.
Retrospective forecasting test (using the earthquake sequence from February 12, 2014, in Hotan region as an example).
Fig 5 (top), the black dots indicate the number of earthquakes observed in each forecast period, the red solid line indicates the median number of earthquakes in the synthetic catalog for each forecast period, and the orange areas indicate the 95% forecast intervals for the number of earthquakes in each time. The extreme values for each interval are the 2.5% and 97.5% quantiles of the number of earthquakes in the synthetic catalog that make up the daily forecast. Fig 5 (below) gives the logarithm of the number of earthquakes, thus enlarging the almost empty part of the value.
Table 6.
Intervals of the forecasted number of earthquakes and the actual number of earthquakes within five days after the mainshock of Ms7.3(February 12, 2014)in Hotan region.
Fig 6.
Histograms of monthly earthquakes in the 0.025, 0.5, and 0.975 quartiles of the distribution of the number of earthquakes in the synthetic earthquake catalogs corresponding to the earthquake catalogs, and the actual earthquake catalogs, respectively, using the results of the INLA and MCMC algorithms fitted to the ETAS model.