Fig 1.
Schematic diagram for VL compartmental model in which the human population is classified based on their sex.
Table 1.
Symbols and description of parameters.
Table 2.
Number of possible positive roots of .
Table 3.
Human reported visceral leishmaniasis cases in Amhara regional state, Ethiopia.
Data re-organized from [43].
Table 4.
Estimated parameter values and the limits of the 95% percentile bootstrap confidence intervals.
All the 21 parameters out of are within their confidence intervals.
Fig 2.
Comparison of observed female human population VL confirmed cases in Ethiopia (indicated in stars) and model prediction (solid curve).
The starting week 0 stands for 2012 which is 2 years before the actual data. Parameter values used are as given in Table 4 and the initial conditions are as given above.
Fig 3.
Comparison of observed male human population VL confirmed cases in Ethiopia (indicated in stars) and model prediction (solid curve).
The starting week 0 stands for 2012 which is 2 years before the actual data. Parameter values used are as given in Table 4 and the initial conditions are as given above.
Fig 4.
The variation of the sizes of classes, exposed males and females, asymptomatic and symptomatic males and females, recovered males and females in time.
Fig 5.
Model fit to observed data corresponding to total VL infected cases the parameter values are as in Table 4.
Fig 6.
Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients (PRCCs) for a selected range of model parameters in Table 4.
VL epidemic will be the worst when the parameters Λv, βhv, c1m, βrv, and c3m are increased, whereas increasing Λr and γ will decrease the prevalence of disease.
Fig 7.
The median of the basic reproduction number from 100 samples is 3.0419 (95% CI:2.1441–4.1501), the lower quartile of the computed value of the basic reproduction number () is about 2.1441, and the upper quartile of 4.1501.
Table 5.
The parameter PRCC significance (the False Discovery Rate (FDR) Adjusted p-value).
Table 6.
The pairwise PRCC comparisons (FDR Adjusted P-values).
Table 7.
Are the parameters different after FDR adjustment?.
Fig 8.
Effect of reducing the biting rate in which female human host receives per week by a given amount from the baseline value, where the other parameter values are as in Table 4.
Fig 9.
Effect of additional effective treatments only for female.
Fig 10.
Effect of reducing the number of bites in which a male human host receives per week by the same percentage from the baseline value.
Fig 11.
Effect of additional efforts in recruitment of males human host for effective treatment.
Fig 12.
Effect of vector control.
Fig 13.
Effect of reservoir treatment.