Fig 1.
Pipelines used for A) creating models and B) producing daily forecasts.
Table 1.
Derived variables used to create forecast models.
Table 2.
Mean forecast peak errors by method and syndromic surveillance system.
Table 3.
Gamlss model coefficients for variation in error standard deviation vs actual counts.
Fig 2.
Intensity errors during training period for A) emergency department acute bronchiolitis attendances and B) NHS 111 cough calls.
Lines show 50% and 95% confidence intervals.
Fig 3.
Timing errors during training period for A) emergency department acute bronchiolitis attendances and B) NHS 111 cough calls.
Lines show 50% and 95% confidence intervals.
Fig 4.
28 day forecast for peak emergency department acute bronchiolitis attendances in children aged <5 years.
Red squares are 28 day forecast, blue lines show 50% (dark blue) and 95% (light blue) data intervals around the peak forecast.
Fig 5.
28 day forecast for peak NHS 111 cough calls in children aged <5 years.
Red squares are 28 day forecast, blue lines show 50% (dark blue) and 95% (light blue) data intervals around the peak forecast.