Fig 1.
Daily laboratory-confirmed mpox cases in Spain, France, the UK, Italy, the Netherlands, Germany, and Portugal since the beginning of the outbreak to September 23, 2022.
Raw incidence counts are presented as points and a 10-day moving average of (smoothed) cases is shown via a solid red line.
Fig 2.
The cumulative number of confirmed mpox cases in Spain, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Italy from the beginning of the outbreak to September 23, 2022.
Fig 3.
Histogram for the estimated Gamma(4.85, 2.57) generation time distribution of the 2022 mpox outbreaks.
Table 1.
Parameters and prior distributions for the first learning window used for Bayesian inference.
Fig 4.
The effective reproduction number Rt for confirmed mpox cases in Spain, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Italy from June 25 to September 23, 2022.
The assumed generation time distribution for the computation of Rt is a Gamma(4.85, 2.57) distribution. The red dots represent the median estimate for Rt. The dark and light gray shaded areas represent 50% and 90% quantiles for Rt, respectively. The black solid line indicates the threshold value 1 on the reproduction number.
Fig 5.
Time-varying estimates of the deceleration of growth parameter, p, derived from fitting the solution of the GGM model (6) to the epidemic growth phase for confirmed daily mpox cases in Spain, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Italy, respectively.
The solid red line represents the median estimate. The dark and light blue shaded areas represent 50% and 90% quantiles, respectively.
Fig 6.
Time-varying estimates of the growth rate, r, derived from fitting the solution of the GGM model (6) to the epidemic growth phase for confirmed daily mpox cases in Spain, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Italy, respectively.
The solid red line represents the median estimate. The dark and light blue shaded areas represent 50% and 90% quantiles, respectively.
Fig 7.
Outbreak analysis for incidence time series of mpox cases in Spain, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Italy.
Solid red lines indicate the median incidence forecast. The darker-shaded blue region indicates the interquartile forecast range, and the lighter-shaded blue region indicates the 5–95th percentile range. Smoothed cases are presented as points.