Table 1.
Summary statistics by state.
Fig 1.
The indian epidemiological transition across states: 1990–2019.
ETL is the ratio of all-age DALYs due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases versus all-age DALYs due to non-communicable diseases.
Table 2.
Aging in India.
Fig 2.
Frailty index and NCD mortality.
Log deficits are grouped in 30 equally sized bins. The scatter plot shows the association of the mean log deficits and log mortality (deaths per 1000 adults) for each bin. The figure contains the fitted regression line.
Table 3.
Frailty index and NCD mortality.
Fig 3.
Epidemiological transition and health deficits: State fixed effects.
The figures show the state fixed effects from the regressions reported in columns (2) and (4) of Table 2 against the ETL-value of 2019. The panel on the left hand side shows results for women, the panel on the right hand side shows results for men. The regression line is 0.0190 − 0.0386ETL for women and 0.0261 − 0.0553ETL for men.
Table 4.
Aging and the epidemiological transition.
Fig 4.
Trends of frailty by year of birth (controlling for age and state).
The figure plots the estimates from regressing the frailty index on cohort dummies (indicated by birth years 1900, 1905, 1910, …), along with their 95% confidence bands. The regression controls for state and age fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at the state level.
Fig 5.
Trends of frailty by year of birth (controlling for age, state, ETL, and SDI).
Estimates as for Fig 4, additionally controlling for the epidemiological transition (ETL) and socio-economic development (SDI).
Fig 6.
Average health deficits by age for women and men: 1990–2019.
The figure plots the estimates from regressing log deficits on a full set of age-group dummies (omitting the regression constant) by gender, using data for all Indian states and all periods (1990, 1995, ‥ 2019), which corresponds to the average of log deficits for each age across countries and period.
Fig 7.
Simulation: Aging and the epidemiological transition 1990 vs. 2020.
The figure shows in the upper panels the health deficits for initially less healthy (left) and initially healthy (right) individuals. The lower panels show the predicted average survival probability in the model society (left) and the predicted average health deficits by age (right) when the epidemiological transition is in an early phase (red dashed lines, ETL = 2.12) and in a late phase (blue solid lines, ETL = 0.52). Health deficits and survival probabilities are calibrated according to the estimates from Tables 2 and 3.
Fig 8.
Simulation: Aging and the epidemiological transition from 1990 to 2020.
The figure assumes that the ETL value declines at a constant rate from 2.7 to 1.1 as the calender year proceeds from 1990 to 2020. The panel on the left (right) hand side shows the predicted health deficits by year of birth for 70 year old (40 year old) men. Health deficits are measured in terms of deviation to the youngest cohort of the vintages shown in the panel. Dashed lines show predictions when a feedback effect from infectious diseases on chronic health deficits is taken into account. See text for details.