Table 1.
Descriptive statistics of the government controlled Ukrainian population, 2016–2021.
Fig 1.
Number of deaths per 100,000 population by calendar month and year in government-controlled Ukraine, all ages and both sexes combined; 2016–2021.
Population size as of January 1 of calendar year.
Table 2.
Recorded, basis, and excess deaths in 2020 and 2021 by calendar month; all ages and both sexes combined.
Fig 2.
Percent excess deaths and COVID-19 coded deaths by age group in (a) 2020 and (b) 2021. Estimates for 2020 include only months that had positive excess deaths across all ages (June-December).
Fig 3.
Heat maps of percent excess deaths by region and calendar year in (a) 2020 and (b) 2021. Data for Luhansk and Donetsk reflect only those parts of these regions that were controlled by the Ukrainian government during these years. Percent excess deaths were from authors’ analysis of mortality data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Basemaps obtained from Cartography Vectors (https://cartographyvectors.com/map/1530-ukraine-with-regions). Python version 3.11.1 was used to construct heat map shading.
Table 3.
Regression results, percent vaccinated, percent excess deaths and estimates of lives saved if Ukrainian vaccination levels reached that of the European average, July 2021-November 2021.
Table 4.
Provisional estimates of basis deaths, hypothetical recorded deaths, and excess deaths for 2022 under the assumption of no Russian invasion.