Fig 1.
The number of daily reported cases in Pudong and Puxi.
Table 1.
The population sizes.
Table 2.
Model parameter details.
Table 3.
Estimated parameter values (95% confidence intervals in parentheses).
Fig 2.
Comparison of the predicted daily number of new cases (red solid line) with the real data (circle scatter).
The predicted cases are obtained by calculating the mean dynamics of the stochastic models (1)-(9) and (11)-(15) with the point estimates of the parameters.
Fig 3.
Comparison of the predicted daily number of new cases (red solid line) with the real data (circle scatter) beyond the time period for fitting our model (before the dashed line).
The predicted cases are obtained by calculating the mean dynamics of the stochastic models (1)-(9) and (11)-(15) with the point estimates of the parameters. Panel (a) shows the total cases, and panel (b) shows the cases in Pudong (red) and Puxi (blue).
Fig 4.
Comparison of the daily number of new cases (blue solid line) obtained by applying the parameter fitting results with the real data (circle scatter).
Unlike Fig 3, here the detection rate increased to 0.198 from April 22 to April 27, to match the social clearance campaign in this period.
Fig 5.
Comparison of the predicted daily cases for a range of transmission rates 0.24ε after lockdown (where 0.24 is the point estimate of the inter-region transmission rate β12 before lockdown), for ε = 0.01, 0.02, 0.05, 0.1 (red solid line, higher curves correspond to higher ε values) and ε = 0 (blue solid line) with the real data (circle scatter).
Fig 6.
Three-dimensional plot and the contour plot of the total (including asymptomatic) cases as a function of the starting dates for lockdown and blanket testing.