Table 1.
Candidate predictor variables for trajectory group membership.
Table 2.
Outcome variables assessed at age 25.
Fig 1.
Models for 8-year physical exercise trajectories from age 16 to 24, exercise trajectory model 1.
Of the 9,353 young people included in the model, 17.9% had a high probability of consistently meeting the WHO guideline recommendation of daily exercise, over 8 years (guideline, black line). 27.5% were unlikely to ever meet recommendations (never guideline, dark red line). 15.2% of the sample were initially meeting daily exercise requirements but dropped out over time (guideline drop-outs, grey line). 39.4% of young people had a low initial probability of meeting guideline requirements but were more likely as time progressed (towards guideline, blue line).
Fig 2.
Model for 8-year physical exercise trajectories from age 16 to 24, exercise trajectory model 2.
8.3% of young people had a persistently low probability of meaningful recreational physical exercise engagement, reporting less than one occasion per week (infrequent, red line). In contrast, 69.5% had a high probability of engaging consistently in more regular exercise (weekly, green line). 17.4% of the sample had an initially high probability of regular exercise that declined over time (decreasing exerciser, yellow line). 4.8% had a modest initial probability of regular exercise that increased from age 17 (increasing-exerciser, blue line).
Fig 3.
Predictors at age 15 for long-term recreational physical exercise participation between the ages of 16 and 24.
Predictors for guideline-adherent (= daily) exercise. Predictors are shown as adjusted Relative Risk Ratios (aRRRs) for falling into the never guideline exerciser trajectory (Fig 3), the towards guideline trajectory (Fig 4) and the guideline drop-out trajectory (Fig 5), compared to the risk of following the guideline exercise trajectory.
Fig 4.
Predictors at age 15 for long-term recreational physical exercise participation between the ages of 16 and 24.
Predictors for guideline-adherent (= daily) exercise. Predictors are shown as adjusted Relative Risk Ratios (aRRRs) for falling into the never guideline exerciser trajectory (Fig 3), the towards guideline trajectory (Fig 4) and the guideline drop-out trajectory (Fig 5), compared to the risk of following the guideline exercise trajectory.
Fig 5.
Predictors at age 15 for long-term recreational physical exercise participation between the ages of 16 and 24.
Predictors for guideline-adherent (= daily) exercise. Predictors are shown as adjusted Relative Risk Ratios (aRRRs) for falling into the never guideline exerciser trajectory (Fig 3), the towards guideline trajectory (Fig 4) and the guideline drop-out trajectory (Fig 5), compared to the risk of following the guideline exercise trajectory.
Fig 6.
Predictors at age 15 for long-term recreational physical exercise participation between the ages of 16 and 24.
Risks for insufficient (less than weekly) recreational exercise (Model 2). Risks are shown as adjusted Relative Risk Ratios (aRRRs) for falling into the infrequent exerciser trajectory (Fig 6), the decreasing exerciser trajectory (Fig 7) and the increasing exerciser trajectory (Fig 8), compared to the risk of following the weekly exercise trajectory. ISEI: International Socio-Economic Index of Occupational Status.
Fig 7.
Predictors at age 15 for long-term recreational physical exercise participation between the ages of 16 and 24.
Risks for insufficient (less than weekly) recreational exercise (Model 2). Risks are shown as adjusted Relative Risk Ratios (aRRRs) for falling into the infrequent exerciser trajectory (Fig 6), the decreasing exerciser trajectory (Fig 7) and the increasing exerciser trajectory (Fig 8), compared to the risk of following the weekly exercise trajectory. ISEI: International Socio-Economic Index of Occupational Status.
Fig 8.
Predictors at age 15 for long-term recreational physical exercise participation between the ages of 16 and 24.
Risks for insufficient (less than weekly) recreational exercise (Model 2). Risks are shown as adjusted Relative Risk Ratios (aRRRs) for falling into the infrequent exerciser trajectory (Fig 6), the decreasing exerciser trajectory (Fig 7) and the increasing exerciser trajectory (Fig 8), compared to the risk of following the weekly exercise trajectory. ISEI: International Socio-Economic Index of Occupational Status.
Fig 9.
Model 1 trajectory group associations with health-, mental health-, and educational outcomes at age 25.
Associations expressed as adjusted odds ratios (ORs) describing the odds of experiencing each outcome of interest for participants who undertake less than daily recreational physical exercise (the never guideline, guideline dropouts, and towards guideline exercise trajectories) vs participants undertaking the recommended level of recreational physical exercise (guideline exercisers). Less than guideline levels of recreational exercise had poorer self-reported general health (Fig 9).
Fig 10.
Model 2 trajectory group associations with health-, mental health-, and educational outcomes at age 25.
Associations expressed as adjusted odds ratios (aORs) describing the odds of experiencing each outcome of interest for participants who undertake lower levels of recreational physical exercise (infrequent exercisers, decreasing exercisers, increasing exercisers) vs participants undertaking a higher level of recreational physical exercise (weekly exercisers). Outcomes are Fig 10) poorer general health; Fig 11) mental illness; Fig 12) overall satisfaction with the future; Fig 13) overall satisfaction with life.
Fig 11.
Model 2 trajectory group associations with health-, mental health-, and educational outcomes at age 25.
Associations expressed as adjusted odds ratios (aORs) describing the odds of experiencing each outcome of interest for participants who undertake lower levels of recreational physical exercise (infrequent exercisers, decreasing exercisers, increasing exercisers) vs participants undertaking a higher level of recreational physical exercise (weekly exercisers). Outcomes are Fig 10) poorer general health; Fig 11) mental illness; Fig 12) overall satisfaction with the future; Fig 13) overall satisfaction with life.
Fig 12.
Model 2 trajectory group associations with health-, mental health-, and educational outcomes at age 25.
Associations expressed as adjusted odds ratios (aORs) describing the odds of experiencing each outcome of interest for participants who undertake lower levels of recreational physical exercise (infrequent exercisers, decreasing exercisers, increasing exercisers) vs participants undertaking a higher level of recreational physical exercise (weekly exercisers). Outcomes are Fig 10) poorer general health; Fig 11) mental illness; Fig 12) overall satisfaction with the future; Fig 13) overall satisfaction with life.
Fig 13.
Model 2 trajectory group associations with health-, mental health-, and educational outcomes at age 25.
Associations expressed as adjusted odds ratios (aORs) describing the odds of experiencing each outcome of interest for participants who undertake lower levels of recreational physical exercise (infrequent exercisers, decreasing exercisers, increasing exercisers) vs participants undertaking a higher level of recreational physical exercise (weekly exercisers). Outcomes are Fig 10) poorer general health; Fig 11) mental illness; Fig 12) overall satisfaction with the future; Fig 13) overall satisfaction with life.