Table 1.
Summary of seasonal climate variables extracted from station data for comparison with Rhagoletis mendax and Drosophila suzukii annual first capture dates.
Table 2.
Linear model fit parameters of Drosophila suzukii first capture dates.
Fig 1.
The annual normalized mean peak capture number of Rhagoletis mendax (solid blue line with blue circles), and mean midseason capture number of Drosophila suzukii (dashed red line with white squares), in highbush blueberry farms in New Jersey (USA).
Fig 2.
Annual first capture dates in Julian days of Rhagoletis mendax and Drosophila suzukii.
Blue circles represent observed R. mendax capture date, red squares represent observed D. suzukii capture date, the solid blue line is a linear fit of the R. mendax first capture dates for the period of 2005 to 2013 and 2015 to 2022, and the dashed red line is a linear fit of the D. suzukii from 2012 to 2022. The correlation coefficient (r) between annual R. mendax captures and annual Drosophila suzukii captures of the prior year is r = −0.84 with a P = 0.019 indicating significant correlation.
Fig 3.
Normalized average annual post-bloom insecticide sprays compared to A. annual peak trap captures of Rhagoletis mendax (blue, with linear trend) and B. average midseason trap captures of Drosophila suzukii (red, with linear trend). Drosophila suzukii captures are significantly correlated with spray numbers at r = −0.78 with P = 0.04.
Table 3.
Selected Pearson correlation coefficients (r) of Rhagoletis mendax annual maximum capture number and Drosophila suzukii average midseason capture number with seasonal climate variables.
Three time periods are presented for R. mendax to correspond to before and after D. suzukii invasion and across the entire time period.
Table 4.
Selected Pearson correlation coefficients (r) of Rhagoletis mendax and Drosophila suzukii annual first capture dates with seasonal climate variables.
Three time periods are presented for R. mendax to correspond to before and after D. suzukii invasion and across the entire time period.
Fig 4.
Comparison trend of Drosophila suzukii first capture days to A. winter DD32, B. prior summer Tdp, and C. prior summer DD50 from 2015 to 2022.
Fig 5.
Projected Drosophila suzukii capture date based on three linear models corresponding to winter DD32 (blue), prior summer DD50 (red), and a multiple linear model incorporating both winter DD32 and prior summer DD50 (purple) for the following two climate change scenarios: A. RCP 4.5 and B. RCP 8.5. Dashed lines represent a quadratic fit of each model output. The purple shaded region represents a quadratic fit to the range of the 95th percent confidence bounds of the combined winter DD32 and prior summer DD50 linear model. All data shown are model outputs driven by climate model output and may not match observed capture dates.
Table 5.
Linear model projections and changes of Drosophila suzukii annual first capture days relative to the observed 2020 first capture date under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the years 2030 and 2050 with 95th percentile intervals.