Fig 1.
Geographic location of the selected districts in Lima, Peru.
Fig 2.
Temperature distribution between 2015 and 2020 in Lima, Peru: (A) Weekly minimum (green), maximum (orange), and average (blue) temperatures between 2015 and 2020. (B) Box plots showing the temperature distribution for each epidemiological week and for each district.
Fig 3.
Conceptual diagram of the SIR-SI model.
S: susceptible; I: infected/infectious; R: recovered; v: vector; βvh: vector-to-host transmission rate; βhv: host-to-vector transmission rate; γ: recovery rate; μv: vector mortality rate.
Fig 4.
Temperature-based functions for (a) μ, (b) b, (c) bh, and (d) bm.
Table 1.
Model parameters.
Table 2.
Reported cases of dengue from 2016 to 2021 (unit: Cases per year).
Fig 5.
Cross-correlation between temperature and cases: Comas in (A) 2017 and (B) 2020, Lurigancho in (C) 2017 and (D) 2019, Puente de Piedra in (E) 2020, and (F) the total. The vertical red line indicates the point of maximum correlation.
Table 3.
Evaluation of the model fits using AIC, BIC, and MLE.
Table 4.
Values of the adjusted parameters for each model in the experiments.
Fig 6.
SIR-SI model with the Gaussian exogenous variable and climatic conditions adjusted for 2017.
The adjusted analysis without the exogenous variable is in green, and the adjusted analysis with model 4 is in red.
Fig 7.
Curves of βex, βhv based only on temperature, and βhv with βex for 2017.
Table 5.
Model parameters by district.
Table 6.
AIC, BIC, and MLE values for each model.
Fig 8.
Distribution of dengue cases in Lima in 2017: (A) Incidence rate (per 100,000 inhabitants). Dengue cases obtained with model 4 for (B) Comas, (C) Lurigancho, and (D) Puente Piedra. The black dots and red line correspond to the reported dengue cases and adjusted curve using model 4, respectively. (E) Comparison between districts of the parameters k, σ, and u.
Fig 9.
Dengue cases in 2019 for Lurigancho and Puente de Piedra.
The black dots and red line correspond to the reported dengue cases and adjusted curve using model 4, respectively.
Fig 10.
Values of the temperature, bbv, βex, and βvh (green) for outbreaks in 2017–2020 for Comas, Lurigancho, and Puente de Piedra.
Fig 11.
(Top) Reported cases (blue dots) and model prediction (Red). (Below) Values of the transmissibility βvh for Lima (including all districts) outbreaks in 2017 and 2020 (green lines) and the effective reproduction number Rt.