Table 1.
Cost schedule.
Fig 1.
Decision tree structure of the economic model.
(A) stage 1: responses to initial hypoglycaemia. (B) stage 2: responses to recurrent hypoglycaemia. (C) stage 3: secondary care outcomes. Full tree formed by mapping stage 3 onto every non-terminating node of stage 2, then that combination mapped onto every stage 1 branch.
Table 2.
Model costs.
Table 3.
Model transition probabilities.
Fig 2.
Model is depicted by patient types in the HS2 intervention arm and in the standard care arm. Once the first fortnight-length cycle concludes exposure to risk of recurrent hypoglycaemia in each subsequent cycle replicates until GP attendance, where the latter defines the absorbing event for the Markov chains.
Table 4.
Baseline modelling results.
Fig 3.
Tornado diagram for selected sensitivity analyses.
One-way sensitivities of baseline ICER due to low/high variations: (i) HS2 intervention cost (+£6.70 to +£18.43; baseline £9.95), (ii) Hypoglycaemia recurrence rate rHS2 (0.375 to 0.9; baseline 0.75), (iii) Severe recurrent hypoglycaemia rate (3.5% to 5.5%; baseline 4.5%).
Fig 4.
Cost-effectiveness plane (baseline value shown in red).
Cost differential between care under HS2 intervention and standard care plotted against number of recurrent hypoglycaemia cases avoided. 10,000 simulated pairs in which recurrent hypoglycaemia incidence and severity rate vary. Baseline (red) cost difference +£929 for +3.00 avoided cases.
Fig 5.
Probability HS2 is least total cost versus standard care by completed cycle, for GP consultation rates 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5.
Estimates of probability that care under HS2 intervention has lesser cost than standard care after n = 1,2,3,4,5 fortnight-length cycles, by absorption probability pGP = 0.3,0.4,0.5. Estimates depicted are proportion of 10,000 simulations in which first-cycle recurrent hypoglycaemia incidence and severity rate vary, then replicate in up to n-1 subsequent cycles until HS2 is least cost.