Fig 1.
Schematic representation of ESCs considered in this study.
ESCs cover electricity generation from RES, intermediary buffer storage for electricity and chemicals, conversion to chemical energy carriers, conditioning and transport from exporter to importer. Each ESCs delivers one out of five chemical energy carriers. Detailed representations of each ESC and all involved technologies are included in S1 Fig. License for icons: CC-BY-3.0 [17–21] and CC-0.
Table 1.
Energy content of chemical energy carriers considered.
Fig 2.
Countries considered for export.
Exports of chemical energy carriers from countries shown to Germany (DE) are modelled and investigated for nine different Energy Supply Chains (ESCs).
Table 2.
Distances between exporting countries and DE assumed for each ESC.
Fig 3.
Modelled electricity supply curves for 2030 at 10% p.a. WACC.
Dashed black parts are reserved for meeting domestic electricity demand and unavailable for export. The inlet contains the same plot on a larger scale. The visible step-wise increase in LCoE for ES and MA is where the cheapest electricity potentials from low cost PV are exhausted and the onshore and offshore wind enter the supply curve.
Table 3.
Main technology assumptions for RES and electrolysis.
Table 4.
Used future (2050, projected) electricity demand and actual (2018) for reference.
Fig 4.
LCoE in 2030 assuming 10% p.a. WACC by ESC and exporter.
LCoE are per MWhth delivered to DE. Lowest cost options are imports via HVDC with subsequent electrolysis in DE and H2 pipelines. For more complex and energy intensive ESCs on the right the order of preference is different compared to the static import options with imports from AR in all but one case being the cheapest.
Fig 5.
LCoE in 2030 to 2050 assuming 10% p.a. WACC by ESC and exporter.
LCoE are per MWhth delivered to DE. The lowest cost import options are H2 (g) imported by pipeline and electricity imports by HVDC with subsequent electrolysis. Methanol and FT fuel imports experience the strongest cost decrease linked to the anticipated cost reduction for synthesis and DAC.
Fig 6.
Cost composition of selected ESCs for 2030 at 10% p.a. WACC.
Simpler, less energy intensive ESCs are favourable for short distances, e.g. domestic sourcing from DE and imports from ES, where low costs associated with transport can compensate high RES costs. More complex, energy intensive ESCs allow long distances exports, e.g. from AR, to become cost competitive due to lower RES costs and trading more complex molecules with higher energy intensity for lower transport cost.
Fig 7.
Levelised Cost of Hydrogen (LCoH) for 2030 to 2050 using extended ESCs.
Direct hydrogen imports have lower LCoH than the alternative ESCs using methane, methanol or ammonia as energy carrier. The extended ESCs include extra process steps for cracking of the energy carrier to deliver hydrogen. All costs assuming 10% p.a. WACC.
Fig 8.
Sensitivities for two ESCs (left) H2 (g) pipeline and (right) methanol by ship from ES to DE for 2030.
Parameters listed on the left y-axis were varied by ±20%. The x-axis shows the resulting LCoE after variation and the relative change. The highest impact on the LCoE can be attributed to the choice of WACC followed by the cost of renewables and hydrogen electrolysis.
Fig 9.
LCoE for 2030 to 2050 at a reduced WACC of 5% p.a..
Lowering the WACC reduces LCoE by around 35%.
Fig 10.
LCoH for 2030 to 2050 at a reduced WACC of 5% p.a..
Lowering the WACC reduces LCoH by around 35%.
Fig 11.
Comparison of market prices of current fossil-based commodities with modelled costs for synthetic ESC-based alternatives.
Market prices are for Methanol based on MMSA Europe Spot FOB [31], Ammonia based on German export prices for ammonia [54], Natural gas based on Dutch TTF C1 future [55], FT fuel based on EU Diesel prices without taxes [56]. Statistics for natural gas are based on the costs for the CH4 pipeline and shipping CH4 (l) ESCs. The median value thus represents four exporter options for FT fuel, ammonia and methanol. For methane the median value represents eight exporter options.