Table 1.
Physician feature values stratified by departure status.
Fig 1.
Primary model performance on unseen test data.
Receiver Operating Characteristic curve and Precision Recall Curve with confidence bands and computed Area Under the Curve values. Diagonal dashed line shows the curve expected from a no-skill classifier.
Table 2.
Model performance at optimal threshold using Youden’s J index.
A 2x2 confusion matrix for the optimal threshold showing physician-month counts and B classification performance statistics. PPV is Positive Predictive Value; NPV is Negative Predictive Value. F1 is the harmonic mean of PPV and Sensitivity.
Fig 2.
Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis Beeswarm Plot showing the 10 top features contributing to physician departure.
Each dot represents a physician-month. Positive SHAP values (right of 0.0 vertical line) indicate the feature increased the individual physician’s monthly risk of departure. Actual feature values are color-coded with high feature values indicated in red, low values in blue and null values in gray.
Fig 3.
Dependence plots for the features with greatest average absolute SHAP values.
Feature value is displayed on the x-axis and the associated SHAP value is displayed on the y-axis. SHAP values greater than zero denote an increase in risk. Color shows the value of the secondary feature estimated to have the strongest interaction with the primary feature.
Fig 4.
SHAP values for interactions between tenure and EHR use metrics.
For each plot, the SHAP value for the interaction between tenure and an EHR use metric is shown as a function of tenure. The x-axis displays the value of tenure, the y-axis shows the SHAP value, and the color encodes the value of the EHR use metric. SHAP values for interactions above zero denote an increase in risk.
Fig 5.
Features with greatest SHAP value change when physician classification changed.
The top 15 values for average per-physician change in log-odds contribution for each feature and pairwise interaction as estimated by SHAP are displayed.