Table 1.
Comparison of agent-based models for HIV transmission.
Fig 1.
The care and treatment system.
A flowchart of the stages of the HIV treatment cascade that agents in the LHM can go through.
Table 2.
Levels of prevention and care levers used in the simulations.
Fig 2.
Incidence by age: Observed and predicted annual incidence cases by age, the modeled 80% prediction range (grey), the modeled mean value (red), and the count observed in 2016 field data from the Chicago Department of Public Health.
Table 3.
Observed and predicted annual incidence cases by age.
Table 4.
Observed and predicted rates of HIV incidence for MSM by Race/Ethnicity.
Fig 3.
Pathways toward interim EHE goal, 75% reduction of incidence by 2025.
Fig 4.
Pathways toward final EHE goal, 90% reduction of incidence by 2030.
Fig 5.
A comparison of care cascades between continuation of 2015 baseline levels vs. optimal path toward the 2030 goal of 90% reduction, for both prevention (left) and treatment (right).
Fig 6.
Projected incidence over time: Projected number of incidence cases over time for the baseline model (blue) and the optimal 90% reduction scenario (green).
Solid line shows the mean projection; colored surface, the 80% Prediction Interval. The black line shows observed levels based on the most recent CDPH surveillance data.
Fig 7.
Projected number of incidence cases over time based on Bayesian posterior predictive distribution: Solid line shows the mean projection; colored surface, the 80% Prediction Interval.
The black line shows observed levels based on the most recent CDPH surveillance data.
Fig 8.
Projected number of incidence cases over time for extreme scenarios: Projected incidence over time for 90% reduction (green); the ART-only scenario that maximizes only ART related levers (yellow); and the PrEP-only scenario that maximizes only PrEP related levers (purple).
The solid line represents the mean of each projection; colored surface, the 80% Prediction Interval.