Fig 1.
Approximation of current known distribution of tropical lineage Rhipicephalus sanguineus.
The range of the tick was approximated using published coordinates of tropical lineage Rhipicephalus sanguineus confirmed by molecular methods, and the Minimum Bounding Geometry function in QGIS [17]. Lytle Creek, California, the location of the most northern record of the tick, is indicated.
Table 1.
Sources of 23 environmental predictor variables used in species distribution modeling of the tropical lineage of Rhipicephalus sanguineus.
Table 2.
Outputs from MaxEnt models predicting habitat suitability for the tropical lineage of Rhipicephalus sanguineus.
Fig 2.
Tropical lineage Rhipicephalus sanguineus suitability maps.
Habitat in the U.S. predicted (using MaxEnt species distribution modeling) to be environmentally suitable for the tropical lineage of Rhipicephalus sanguineus under current (2015–2019) climatic conditions, projected future (2021–2040) climatic conditions under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1–2.6, and projected future (2021–2040) climatic conditions under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5. Suitability is visualized as a heatmap and a binary probability threshold that represents the mean maximum true positive rate at the maximum true negative rate across all ten model iterations that were run for each scenario. Lytle Creek, California, the location of the most northern record of the tick, is indicated.
Fig 3.
Tropical lineage Rhipicephalus sanguineus species distribution modeling response curves.
Estimated smoothed trends (using GAM) between environmental predictor variables and predicted habitat suitability in MaxEnt models for the tropical lineage of Rhipicephalus sanguineus. Trends were derived from the ratio of probability density of each predictor at presence to background geolocations, considering data from 10 iterations used for model training and testing.
Fig 4.
Overlap among tropical lineage Rhipicephalus sanguineus suitability maps under current and future conditions.
The overlap in habitat in the U.S. predicted (using MaxEnt species distribution modeling) to be environmentally suitable for the tropical lineage of Rhipicephalus sanguineus under current (2015–2019) climatic conditions (red shading), and projected future (2021–2040) climatic conditions under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1–2.6 (blue diagonal lines). Suitability is visualized as the mean maximum true positive rate at the maximum true negative rate across all ten model iterations run for each scenario. Larger areas of suitability are zoomed in to highlight the overlap and differences in suitability among predictions under current and future climate. Lytle Creek, California, the location of the most northern record of the tick, is indicated.
Fig 5.
Overlap among tropical lineage Rhipicephalus sanguineus suitability maps under future conditions projected for two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.
The overlap in habitat in the U.S. predicted (using MaxEnt species distribution modeling) to be environmentally suitable for the tropical lineage of Rhipicephalus sanguineus under projected future (2021–2040) climatic conditions under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1–2.6 (blue diagonal lines), and projected future (2021–2040) climatic conditions under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (orange shading). Suitability is visualized as the mean maximum true positive rate at the maximum true negative rate across all ten model iterations run for each scenario. Larger areas of suitability are zoomed in to highlight the overlap and differences in suitability among Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. Lytle Creek, California, the location of the most northern record of the tick, is indicated.