Fig 1.
Mosquito and sexual transmission model for the Zika Virus.
Susceptible men (Sm) and susceptible women (Sw) are exposed (Em, Ew) to the virus. After the latent period, they become symptomatically infectious (Ims, Iws) or asymptomatically infectious (Ima, Iwa). After 1/γ1 days the viral load is cleared from their blood, but can remain in their genital fluids (Im, Iw), before recovering. Susceptible mosquitoes (Sv) become exposed (Ev) and, after the latent period, infectious (Iv). Interactions between men, women and mosquitoes are depicted by broken lines.
Table 1.
Model parameters and their estimated realistic range.
Table 2.
Estimated at risk population by municipality.
Table 3.
Estimated errors, parameters, and correction factor for the symptomatic ZIKV infections.
Fig 2.
Comparing the adjusted proportion of observed symptomatic infections and the model output (See S1 Appendix for all plots).
Y-axis is a proportion (infected / at risk population), and the x-axis is time (in weeks).
Table 4.
Comparison between the number of reported infections and estimated infections.
Table 5.
ZIKV infections disaggregated by symptomatology.
Table 6.
ZIKV infections disaggregated by transmission pathway.
Fig 3.
Comparison of the proportion of symptomatic infections of the best fit and the behavior of the epidemics when policies are implemented at th = 20%.
Y-axis is a proportion (infected / at risk population), and the x-axis is time (in weeks). Best fit is dashed line, and policy 1,2, and 3 are colored blue, red, and purple, respectively.
Fig 4.
Comparison of the proportion of symptomatic infections of the best fit and the behavior of the epidemics when policies are implemented at th = 50%.
Y-axis is a proportion (infected / at risk population), and the x-axis is time (in weeks). Best fit is dashed line, and policy 1,2, and 3 are colored blue, red, and purple, respectively.
Fig 5.
Comparison of the proportion of symptomatic infections of the best fit and the behavior of the epidemics when policies are implemented at th = 80%.
Y-axis is a proportion (infected / at risk population), and the x-axis is time (in weeks). Best fit is dashed line, and policy 1,2, and 3 are colored blue, red, and purple, respectively.
Table 7.
Percentage of reduction of ZIKV infections by policy.
Fig 6.
Comparison of the proportion of symptomatic infections of the best fit and the behavior of the epidemics when the number of risky sexual interactions increases.
Y-axis is a proportion (infected / at risk population), and the x-axis is time (in weeks). Best fit is dashed line, blue corresponds to ρ = 0.10, and red is ρ = 0.20.
Table 8.
Percentage of increment of ZIKV infections according to the proportion of unprotected sexual interactions.