Fig 1.
Projected species turnover (Sørenson) for +2.0°C warming scenario across all 49 parks, with 0 being no change and 1 being complete.
Values can also be understood in terms of percent turnover (e.g., 0.252 = 25.2%). Circle diameter represents summer rates and color represents winter rates. Breaks in classes are based on quartiles.
Fig 2.
Classification of parks into relative trend groups based on the proportion of potential colonisations to potential extirpations in summer.
Each circle represents a park and its modeled projection.
Table 1.
Regional and national summaries of potential changes in bird species with +2.0°C warming: 1) # of parks used in regional and national calculations; 2) mean (± SE) change in species richness per park; 3) mean (± SE) number of potential colonisation per park; 4) mean (± SE) number of potential extirpations per park; and, 5) mean (± SE) change in Sørenson similarity turnover index per park.
Fig 3.
Change between current and future species richness (SpRich) across 41 parks (classified by region) for both summer and winter bird assemblages.
The dashed line represents the null model (1:1 relationship); the red line is the model II major axis regression line (summer y = 26.38 + 0.72x, r = 0.53; winter y = 23.84 + 1.02x, r = 0.89).
Fig 4.
Change between current and future functional species richness (FRic) across 41 parks (classified by region) for both summer and winter bird assemblages.
The dashed line represents the null model (1:1 relationship); the red line is the model II major axis regression line (summer y = 0.06 + 0.86x, r = 0.66; winter y = 0.20 + 0.87x, r = 0.86). Functional richness represents the volume occupied by a park in multidimensional trait space.
Fig 5.
Change between current and future functional dispersion (FDis) across all 41 parks (classified by region) for both summer and winter bird assemblages.
The dashed line represents the null model (1:1 relationship); the red line is the model II major axis regression line (summer y = 0.23 + 0.74x, r = 0.66; winter y = 0.80 + 0.14x, r = 0.33). Functional dispersion represents the mean distance of all species to the centroid of the assemblage in multidimensional trait space.
Fig 6.
Change between current and future taxon restrictedness (TRes) across all 41 parks (classified by region) for both summer and winter bird assemblages.
The dashed line represents the null model (1:1 relationship); the red line is the model II major axis regression line (summer y = (-0.01) + 0.94x, r = 0.86; winter y = 0.07 + 1.15x, r = 0.85). Restrictedness represents an index value between 0 and 1, where 0 indicates a species is absent from all parks (i.e., completely restricted) and 1 indicates present at all parks (not restricted).
Table 2.
Slope and intercept values, including 95% confidence intervals (C.I.), and regression coefficients for the Model II MA Regression models comparing the species richness (SpRich), functional richness (FRic), functional dispersion (FDis), and taxon restrictedness (TRes) between current and projected bird assemblages (null model 1:1).