Fig 1.
Mean with error bars (one standard deviation) of the change values of each modelled variable in the Bayesian Network.
Abbreviation: Suffix with “_early”–change score between baseline and week-10 follow-up; “_late”–change value between week-10 and week-52; Anx—anxiety; lbp–low back pain; lp–leg pain; IndvPT–individualised physiotherapy.
Table 1.
Baseline descriptive characteristics of cohort included in Bayesian Network analysis.
Fig 2.
The directed acyclic graph (DAG) underlying the consensus Bayesian Network learned from the variables across 289 participants.
The colour of the arcs reflect the sign (positive [blue] or negative [red]) of the β coefficient value relating the “parent” to “child” variables. The thickness of the arcs reflects the proportion of times each arc was found in the 200 Bayesian Network models built; only arcs that appeared in >50% of the networks are included in the final averaged consensus network. Abbreviation: Suffix with “_early”–change score between baseline and week-10 follow-up; “_late”–change value between week-10 and week-52; Anx—anxiety; lbp–low back pain; lp–leg pain; IndvPT–individualised physiotherapy.
Table 2.
Measurement errors between observed and predicted change values.
Fig 3.
Posterior samples (104) of the relationship between an early change in disability against an early change in depressive symptoms, with associated linear relationship.
Fig 4.
Contribution of different pathways from early change in disability to early change in depressive symptoms.
A dotted arc (-—>) reflects a simulation whereby the “child” variable was made independent of its “parent”, meaning it is removed. Arrows in red reflect the arcs which are “removed” as a consequence of the aforementioned simulation. Information can only pass through grey arcs (not red). (a) scenario where early change in fear was independent of early change in disability, (b) scenario where early change in persistence was independent of early change in disability and low back pain. Abbreviation: Suffix with “_early”–change score between baseline and week-10 follow-up; “_late”–change value between week-10 and week-52; Anx—anxiety; lbp–low back pain.
Fig 5.
Posterior samples (104) of the relationship between an early change in disability against an early change in depressive symptoms, with associated linear relationship.