Fig 1.
Location of the study area, mainly included urban area and suburb areas.
Fig 2.
The flowchart of this study.
Fig 3.
Illustration of linear model fitting of time series values.
Fig 4.
The linear fitting goodness evaluations of NTL and NDVI time series.
(a) the RMSE map of the NTL time series; (b) examples of NTL linear fitting at sample points with high RMSE values; (c) the RMSE map of NDVI time series; (d) examples of NDVI linear fitting of sample points with high RMSE values.
Fig 5.
The spatial distributions of the linear model parameters.
(a) map of aNTL values; (b) map of bNTL values; (c) map of aNDVI values; (d) map of bNDVI values.
Fig 6.
The linear model lines of the samples of cluster 1, cluster 2, cluster 3, cluster 4, cluster 10 and class 11.
Fig 7.
The linear model lines of the samples of cluster 5, cluster 6, cluster 7, cluster 8, cluster 9 and class 12.
Table 1.
Results of clustering the linear model parameters and the urban development trends of each cluster.
Fig 8.
The urban development trend clustering results.
LDSU-VI (type 1): Low density stable urban and vegetation increase type; UE-LDSV (type 2): Urban expansion and Low density stable vegetation type; LDSU-HDSV (type 3): Low density stable urban and High density stable vegetation type; HDSU-LDSV (type 4): High density stable urban and low density stable vegetation type; UE-HDSV (type 5): Urban expansion and high density stable vegetation type; UE-VD (type 6): Urban expansion and vegetation degeneration type.
Fig 9.
Exclusion layers for urban expansion scenarios.
Table 2.
Calibration results of the three scenarios.
Fig 10.
Urban land area predicted under three scenarios by 2030.
(a) Scenario 1, historical growth; (b) Scenario 2, gentle restriction of urban expansion; (c) Scenario 3, strict restriction of urban expansion.
Table 3.
Predicted urban expansion statistics, in 2030, under three scenarios.
Fig 11.
T-test values of time series normalized NTL linear fitting.
(a) the spatial distribution map of t-test values. (b) examples of NTL linear fitting at sample points with low t-test values.