Table 1.
Characteristics of the data sets used for the sequential calibration and forecasting of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico and Mexico City (2020).
Fig 1.
Upper panel: Epidemic curve for the COVID-19 deaths in Mexico and Mexico City from March 20-November 11, 2020.
The blue line depicts the confirmed deaths in Mexico and the green line depicts the confirmed deaths in Mexico City. Lower panel: The mobility trends for Mexico from February 28-December 5, 2020. The orange line shows the driving trend, the blue line shows the transit trend, and the black line shows the walking trend.
Fig 2.
Calibration performance for each of the thirteen sequential calibration phases for GLM (magenta), Richards (red), and sub-epidemic (blue) model for Mexico. High 95% PI coverage and lower mean interval score (MIS), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) indicate better performance.
Fig 3.
Calibration performance for each of the thirteen sequential calibration phases for GLM (magenta), Richards (red), and sub-epidemic (blue) model for Mexico City. High 95% PI coverage and lower mean interval score (MIS), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) indicate better performance.
Fig 4.
Forecasting period performance metrics for each of the thirteen sequential forecasting phases for GLM (magenta), Richards (red) and sub-epidemic (blue) model for Mexico. High 95% PI coverage and lower mean interval score (MIS), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) indicate better performance.
Fig 5.
Forecasting period performance metrics for each of the thirteen sequential forecasting phases for GLM (magenta), Richards (red) and sub-epidemic (blue) model for the Mexico City. High 95% PI coverage and lower mean interval score (MIS), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) indicate better performance.
Fig 6.
Systematic comparison of six models (GLM, Richards, sub-epidemic model, IHME current projections (IHME C.P), IHME universal masks (IHME U.M) and IHME mandates easing (IHME M.E) to predict the cumulative COVID-19 deaths for Mexico in the thirteen sequential forecasts.
The blue circles represent the mean deaths, and the magenta vertical line indicates the 95% PI around the mean death count. The horizontal dashed line represents the actual death count reported by that date as published in the November 11, 2020, IHME estimates file.
Fig 7.
Systematic comparison of six models (GLM, Richards, sub-epidemic model, IHME current projections (IHME C.P), IHME universal masks (IHME U.M) and IHME mandates easing (IHME M.E) to predict the cumulative COVID-19 deaths for the Mexico City in the thirteen sequential forecasts.
The blue circles represent the mean deaths, and the magenta vertical line indicates the 95% PI around the mean death count. The horizontal dashed line represents the actual death count reported by that date as published in the November 11, 2020, IHME estimates file.
Table 2.
Cumulative mortality estimates obtained from the six models (GLM, Richards model, sub-epidemic model, IHME current projections, IHME universal mask and IHME mandates easing) at the end of each forecasting period for the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico (2020).
Table 3.
Cumulative mortality estimates obtained from the six models (GLM, Richards model, sub-epidemic model, IHME current projections, IHME universal mask, and IHME mandates easing) at the end of each forecasting period for the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico City (2020).
Fig 8.
Upper panel: Reproduction number with 95% CI estimated using the GGM model.
The estimated reproduction number of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico as of May 29, 2020, is 1.1 (95% CI: [1.1, 1.1]). The growth rate parameter, r, is estimated at 1.2 (95% CI: [1.1, 1.4]) and the deceleration of growth parameter, p, is estimated at 0.7 (95% CI: [0.68, 0.71]). Lower panel: The lower panel shows the GGM fit to the case incidence data for the first 90 days.
Fig 9.
Upper panel: Epidemiological curve (by the dates of symptom onset) for Mexico (left panel) and Mexico City (right panel) as of September 27, 2020. Lower panel: Instantaneous reproduction number with 95% credible intervals for the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico as of September 27, 2020. The red solid line represents the mean reproduction number for Mexico and the red shaded area represents the 95% credible interval around it. The blue solid line represents the mean reproduction number for Mexico City and the blue shaded region represents the 95% credible interval around it.
Fig 10.
Global ML tree for SARS-CoV-2 genomic data from February 27- May 29, 2020.
Sequences sampled in Mexico are highlighted in red.
Fig 11.
Clusters of states by their growth rates.
Cluster 1 in blue, cluster 2 in orange, cluster 3 in yellow, and cluster 4 in purple. The right panel shows the average growth rate curves for each cluster (solid curves) and their overall average (black broken curve).
Fig 12.
Color scale image of daily COVID-19 cases by region.