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Fig 1.

Reported daily cases.

Reported daily cases for (a) Malaysia, (b) Selangor and (c) Sarawak. The time period considered is from March 1, 2020 to April 28, 2020.

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Fig 1 Expand

Fig 2.

Flow chart of the modified SEIR model.

Compartments of the modified SEIR model and their associated parameters.

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Fig 2 Expand

Table 1.

Hyperparameter values for the reported results.

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Table 1 Expand

Fig 3.

Constant rate submodel—Daily cases.

Reported daily cases (red line), and overlay plots of ΔRo(t) (blue line) and F(t) (green line) based on for the constant rate submodel for (a) Malaysia, (b) Selangor and (c) Sarawak.

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Fig 3 Expand

Fig 4.

Constant rate submodel—Δt.

Plots of Δt versus t for the constant rate submodel for (a) Malaysia, (b) Selangor and (c) Sarawak.

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Fig 4 Expand

Fig 5.

Modified SEIR model: Daily cases.

Reported daily cases (red line), and overlay plots of ΔRo(t) (blue line) and F(t) (green line) based on for (a) Malaysia, (b) Selangor and (c) Sarawak.

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Fig 5 Expand

Fig 6.

Modified SEIR model: Cumulative cases.

Reported cumulative cases (red line), and overlay plots of Ro(t) (green line) based on for (a) Malaysia, (b) Selangor and (c) Sarawak.

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Fig 6 Expand

Table 2.

MAP estimates and associated credible intervals for Malaysia.

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Table 2 Expand

Table 3.

MAP estimates and associated credible intervals for Selangor.

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Table 3 Expand

Table 4.

MAP estimates and associated credible intervals for Sarawak.

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Table 4 Expand

Fig 7.

Correlation plots 1.

Correlation plots of selected pairs of parameters of the modified SEIR model for Malaysia (top row), Selangor (middle row) and Sarawak (bottom row).

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Fig 7 Expand

Fig 8.

Correlation plots 2.

Correlation plots of a different set of pairings of parameters of the modified SEIR model for (a) Malaysia, (b) Selangor and (c) Sarawak.

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Fig 8 Expand

Fig 9.

Modified SEIR model: Δt.

Plots of Δt versus t: (a) Malaysia, (b) Selangor and (c) Sarawak.

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Fig 9 Expand

Fig 10.

Variation of modelled daily cases.

Illustration of the variability of F(t) from the posterior: Reported cumulative cases (red line), and overlay plots of F(t) for (a) Malaysia, (b) Selangor and (c) Sarawak.

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Fig 10 Expand

Fig 11.

Effect of redistribution.

Panel (a) shows the redistributed daily cases and the corresponding best fit curves of F(t) (blue line) and ΔRo(t) (green line) based on . Panel (b) shows the variability of the fit based on the ensemble set .

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Fig 11 Expand

Table 5.

Summary results for Malaysia (with redistributed cases).

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Table 5 Expand

Table 6.

Loglikelihood values of the NB and poisson likelihoods.

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Table 6 Expand