Table 1.
Vaccine coverage by June 2021 and December 2021 for three groups prioritised.
Fig 1.
Daily hospitalization incidence (rate per million population per day) in the absence of vaccination for varying level of public policy response, 2020–2022.
Based on reference scenario for seasonal variation in COVID-19 transmission (20%), severity of reinfection (90% less than primary infection), median duration of natural/vaccine immunity of one year and NPIs maintained until end of 2022. Black dotted lines correspond to the predefined hospitalization threshold of public health response. The black curve follows a scenario where the threshold for NPIs is based on the first wave (100 hospitalization per one million population). The blue curve represents a scenario where the threshold for NPIs is based on the second wave (70 hospitalizations per one million population). The red curve represents a scenario where the response is weak and the NPI threshold high (200 hospitalization per one million population).
Fig 2.
Number of NPI activation periods in 2021–2022 and peak hospitalization incidence in the absence of NPIs.
Based on reference scenario for disease characteristics, NPI response (second wave threshold), and vaccine profile (protection against infection). The number of days and error bars corresponds respectively to reference, minimum and maximum values for an efficacy of 70% ranging from 50% to 90%.
Fig 3.
Daily hospitalization incidence (rate per million population per day) with and without an immunisation program with varying uptake and supply constraints, 2020–2022.
Based on reference scenario for disease characteristics, NPI response (second wave threshold), vaccine profile (protection against infection) and NPIs maintained until end of 2022. Panel A–No vaccination (dark blue curve) and vaccination scenario under uptake constraint (light blue), Panel B–No vaccination (dark blue curve) and vaccination scenarios with strong supply constraint under two assumptions for relaxation of such constraints: the constraints not being eased during the second half of the year (light blue) or the constraints being eased during the second half of the years (orange), Panel C–No vaccination (dark blue curve) and vaccination scenarios with weak supply constraint under two assumptions for relaxation of such constraints: the constraints not being eased during the second half of the year (light blue) or the constraints being eased during the second half of the years (orange). The variation in impact due to the range of vaccine efficacy considered is shown as the area of the vaccine impact curves.
Table 2.
Cumulative incidence of COVID-19 hospitalization per million population and percentage reduction in hospitalization rates for immunisation programs with and without relaxation of uptake and supply constraints compared to no vaccination, 2021–2022.
Table 3.
Number of COVID-19 hospitalizations averted with and without relaxation of constraints in July 2021, 2021–2022.
Fig 4.
Tornado diagram on the impact of a variation of vaccine and disease characteristics on the reduction in hospitalization in 2021–2022 associated to vaccination (relaxed strong supply and uptake constraints scenario).
All outcomes presented corresponds to univariate sensitivity analysis of the reference case for key disease and vaccine characteristics. The figure shows the change in number of hospitalizations (as %) for the 2021–2022 period compared to no vaccination counterfactual for different vaccine and disease characteristics. The red bars correspond to factor with the largest impact, figures next to the bars to the impact on COVID-19 hospitalizations compared to no vaccination and bars are oriented right or left depending of if the figure is smaller or higher than base case (first row).