Fig 1.
The total population is divided into three main groups, the general population (Ge), the employees of the long term care facilities (St), and the residents of those facilities (Ri). Infection flows between members of each group as explained in the text.
Table 1.
Sensitivity of tests with different quality in the respective stages of the infection.
Fig 2.
Impact of rate of testing LTCF staff on the number of infections: Shown are the numbers of infected (I) individuals per 100 000 individuals (normalized to the sub-population size) at time t for (A-B) the general sub-population (Ge), (C-D) the LTCF staff (St), and (E-F) the risk group (Ri), assuming different testing rates. A good-quality test (cf. Table 1) is assumed with a processing time of 48 hours. After generation t = 450 no contact reductions among Ge, and between Ge and St are assumed. Only contact reductions within LTCFs are assumed. The solid black lines correspond to the baseline model without the testing intervention. The dashed black lines show the number of infections if neither testing nor any general contact reductions is assumed after generation t = 450. Panels G, H show the number of infections for corresponding simulations assuming no contact reduction in the LTCFs after time t = 450—the solid black line corresponds to no testing. Panels A, C, E, G show the dynamics for the time range from t = 0 to t = 550, while the remaining panels show the dynamics for the time range from t = 300 to t = 750 (note the difference in the range of the y-axes for the different time ranges). Seasonal fluctuations in R0 are assumed and are indicated by the dashed grey lines corresponding to the axis on the right-hand side in all panels. The parameters used for the simulations are listed in Table 1, and S1–S6 Tables.
Fig 3.
Impact of rate of testing LTCF staff on mortality: As in Fig 2 but for (cumulative) numbers of deaths (D) at time t.
Fig 4.
Impact of processing time for testing LTCF staff on the number of infections: As in Fig 2 but for different test processing times assuming a testing rate of once per 5 days with a good-quality test (cf. Table 1).
Fig 5.
Impact of processing time for testing LTCF staff on mortality: As in Fig 4 but for (cumulative) numbers of deaths (D) at time t.
Fig 6.
Impact of sensitivity when testing LTCF staff on the number of infections: As in Fig 2 but for different test qualities (determined by their sensitivity; cf. Table 1).
Fig 7.
Impact of sensitivity when testing LTCF staff on mortality: As in Fig 6 but for (cumulative) numbers of deaths (D) at time t.
Fig 8.
Impact of PCR vs. antigen tests on the number of infections: As in Fig 2 but comparing testing using PCR and antigen tests with no testing (colors).
For the PCR scenario testing every 5 days with an excellent-quality PCR test (cf. Table 1) with a processing time is assumed. Antigen tests (cf. Table 1) are assumed to be performed one a day (solid) or twice a day (dashed) with a processing time of 15 minutes.
Fig 9.
Impact of PCR vs. antigen tests on mortality: As in Fig 8 but for mortality instead of the number of infections.
Fig 10.
Impact of PCR vs. antigen tests in IFs on the number of infections.
As in Fig 8 but for U.S. IFs instead of German LTCFs. Parameters for contact reduction are given in S7 Table.
Fig 11.
Impact of PCR vs. antigen tests in IFs on mortality: As in Fig 9 but for U.S. IFs instead of German LTCFs.
Parameters for contact reduction are given in S7 Table.