Fig 1.
US prescription drug claims dispensed by month.
The figure shows the total number of approved pharmaceutical claims in the database; the red line indicates the ramp up of Covid-19 cases and response in the US. The trendline is based on data from May 2019 through February 2020 and represents a linear forecast for the period beyond February 2020. There were 12.05% fewer claims in August 2020 than in August 2019, likely due a combination of factors: stock up in March 2020, reduced demand (due to delayed elective procedures), and access challenges.
Fig 2.
Total days of supply (DOS) dispensed by month across key drugs.
Total days of supply (DOS) dispensed by month across key drugs. March 2020 represents the peak demand for many drugs, though there are exceptions such as dexmethylphenidate HCL; this stimulant used to treat ADHD essentially saw the early onset of the summer decline when Covid-19 began to impact the US. The red line indicates the ramp up of Covid-19 cases and response in the US.
Fig 3.
Proportion of total rejected for attempting to fill too early by month.
Proportion of claims rejected for attempting to refill too early. This is calculated by dividing the number of claims rejected with NCPDP Code 79 –Early Refill by the total number of claims for the drug. Pre-COVID means are calculated through February 2020. The red line indicates the ramp up of Covid-19 cases and response in the US.
Table 1.
Impact of Covid-19 on probability of discontinuing therapy: Conditional likelihood linear probability model analysis.
Table 2.
Patient pool and changes in discontinuation.