Table 1.
Values and interpretation of the parameters of the model.
Fig 1.
Graphical representation of the models A) Schematic of the Markov Model of the decision tree to estimate the peri-urban ↔ sylvatic probability transmission ratio. B) Schematic of the Markov Model. The nodes represent the events of immunological break and the events of new serotype establishment which are indicated with arrows. Abbreviations: Inf = Infected, Uninf = Uninfected, H = Human, M = Mosquito, Ref = Reference, Imm = Immune, Ser = Serotype, and Suscept = Susceptible.
Fig 2.
The peri-urban ↔ sylvatic exchange simulation results.
This simulation calculates 500 different scenarios for a population of 100 000 humans that live in peri-urban areas and are in contact with the forest (with a density of 1 mosquito per human). The peri-urban ↔ sylvatic probability of dengue transmission ratio (PUSDTR) are measured. PUSDTR = (probability of dengue to be carried from the urban area to the forest)/(probability of dengue to be carried from the forest to the urban area).
Fig 3.
Modeling of novel DENV serotype emergence with a varying mutation rate and no vertical transmission.
Column A: natural mutation rate, B: 100 x natural mutation rate, C: 1 000 x natural mutation rate. The graphs presented vertically are 1: 500 x (100 000 persons and 100 000 mosquitoes) simulation outcomes, 2: new serotype consolidation vs. new serotype transmission, 3: novel serotype transmission distribution, 4: novel serotype consolidation distribution.
Fig 4.
Modeling of the emergence of dengue virus presenting a new serotype with virus mutation rate 1 000 times normal, and with vertical transmission.
Column A: 10% of vertical transmission, B: 30% of vertical transmission, and C: 50% of vertical transmission. The graphs represent vertically 1: 500 x (100 000 persons and 100 000 mosquitoes) simulation outcomes, 2: serotype emergence vs. serotype transmission, 3: serotype transmission distribution, 4: serotype consolidation distribution.