Fig 1.
Location map of the Pará State, Brazil.
Fig 2.
Cases, deaths, and hospital beds occupancy caused by COVID-19 in the Pará State, Brazil.
Fig 3.
ANN architecture with 1 neuron at input layer, 5 neurons and hyperbolic tangent activation function at hidden layer, and 2 neurons and linear activation function at output layer.
xj is the standardized or binary scale output of the j-th neuron of input layer when quantitative or categorical variables were used, respectively. w1ij is the synaptic weight that connects the output of the j-th neuron of the input layer to the input of the i-th neuron of the hidden layer. u1i is the result of the scalar product between xj and w1ij. b1i is the bias added to the i-th neuron of the hidden layer. y1i is the output of the i-th neuron from the hidden layer. w2ij is the synaptic weight that connects the output of the j-th neuron of the hidden layer to the input of the i-th neuron of the output layer. b2i is the bias added to the i-th neuron of the output layer. y2i is the output of the i-th neuron from the output layer.
Table 1.
Prediction and trend measures of the best ANN for the test dataset.
Fig 4.
Forecasting of cumulative cases in the six analyzed scenarios.
Fig 5.
Forecasting of cumulative deaths in the six analyzed scenarios.
Fig 6.
Forecasting of daily cases for the six analyzed scenarios.
Fig 7.
Forecasting of daily deaths in the six analyzed scenarios.
Fig 8.
Forecasting of standard hospital beds occupancy in the six analyzed scenarios.
Fig 9.
Forecasting of ICU beds occupancy in the six analyzed scenarios.
Table 2.
Prediction and trend measures used to validate the forecasts.
Fig 10.
Percentual residuals for cumulative cases of the 6 analyzed scenarios.
Fig 11.
Percentual residuals for cumulative deaths of the 6 analyzed scenarios.
Fig 12.
Percentual residuals for daily cases of the 6 analyzed scenarios.
Fig 13.
Percentual residuals for daily deaths of the 6 analyzed scenarios.
Fig 14.
Percentual residuals for standard hospital beds occupancy of the 6 analyzed scenarios.
Fig 15.
Percentual residuals for ICU bed occupancy in the 6 analyzed scenarios.