Fig 1.
a) Distribution of the total number of COVID-19 confirmed cases as of 6 November 2020 in the U.S. [24], b) the daily number of confirmed cases in the U.S. with the moving seven-day average means from the initial outbreak to 6 November 2020 [24], c) the U.S. counties recording their highest daily number of confirmed cases in the last week of October and the first week of November 2020 (we excluded the counties with mean daily cases less than 5), d) the location of U.S. hospitals with licensed staffed beds that can be used to treat COVID-19 patients [25], e) the number of licensed beds per 1,000 population aged +60, and f) the number of ICU beds per 1000 population aged +60 [20, 25, 26].
Fig 2.
a) Fitting of the first and second waves of the active COVID-19 cases in the U.S. compared with the data collected from Worldometers [1] and Johns Hopkins published data [28] sets as well as the predicted active cases for the third wave using the basic case assumptions, b) expected number of the hospitalized cases including inpatients, ICU admitted patients, and patients requiring ICUs with mechanical ventilators compared with the available capacity of the U.S. beds in first two categories (the shaded area is the envelope for the 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles for each bed category). c) the number of hospitalized cases for different state reopening scenarios compared with the basic case and the distribution of hospitalization cases during the peak of the basic case. The impact of different state reopening scenarios on the ratio of d) the maximum number of cases needing hospitalization in the U.S. to the peak hospitalization during the second wave, e) the total number of counties with expected hospital demand exceeding the capacity to the maximum number of counties with overwhelmed hospital beds during the second wave, and f) the total number of counties with expected ICU demand exceeding the capacity to the maximum number of counties with overwhelmed ICU beds during the second wave. Distribution of counties expected to be overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients for the g) basic case, h) fully susceptible population with 50% reduction in protection rate, and i) fully susceptible population with no protection.
Fig 3.
a) Impact of delay in states’ reopening indoor activities including schools and workplaces on the expected ratio of the peak of the hospitalized cases and the expected number of overwhelmed counties based on the total number of beds and ICU beds to that of the second wave. b) Effect of the available surge capacity at each county’s hospitals on the expected ratio of overwhelmed counties based on the total number of beds and ICU beds to that of the second wave. Required number of additional staffed beds per state to avoid overwhelming the hospitals based on c) inpatient beds, d) ICU beds, and e) ICU beds with mechanical ventilators. The bar graphs represent the base, 97.5, and 2.5 percentiles, while the color fill in the maps denotes the 50 percentiles.